| Records |
Author  |
Pirttioja, N.; Fronzek, S.; Rötter, R.P.; Carter, T.R. |
| Title |
Simulating Adaptive Management Using Impact Models in a Risk Framework |
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2012 |
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CropM |
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Adaptation Futures. Tucson, AZ, USA, 2012-05-29 to 2012-05-31 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2725 |
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| Author |
Pirttioja, N.; Fronzek, S.; Rötter, R.P.; Carter, T.R. |
| Title |
Probabilistic assessment of crop adaptation options under a changing climate |
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2012 |
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CropM |
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Second Nordic International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation, 2012-08-29 to 2012-08-30 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2724 |
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| Author |
Rötter, R. |
| Title |
Challenges for CropM in integrated (regional) assessment of climate change risks to food production |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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4 |
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SP4-13 |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2203 |
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| Author |
Rötter, R. |
| Title |
Crop yield variance and yield gap analysis for evaluating technological innovations under climate change: the case of Finnish barley |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-50 |
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The quest for sustainable intensification of agricultural systems has recently triggered research on determining and closing the gaps between farmers’ actual and potential crop yields that can be obtained under optimal management. This so-called “yield gap” is then taken as a yardstick for indicating the potential of technological innovations in agricultural production. In this paper, we argue that in order to assess risks and opportunities for technological innovations we need extra information on crop yield variances in different production situations.Starting point is to assess farmers’ actual yields using data in sufficient quality and resolutions. Crop simulation models are then applied to quantify crop yield potentials and their variances in a changing environment. Resultant information allows ex ante evaluation of innovations that aim at increasing and stabilizing yields.Here we present this approach for barley cultivation in Finland for observed (1981-2010) and future climate (projected for three time periods centered around 2025, 2055 and 2085). Mean and median levels, variances and probabilities of simulated potential and water-limited and observed farmers’ yields are generated for two contrasting regions for analysing production risks and assessing the effectiveness of alternative technologies. As farmers show different levels of risk-aversion, which influence their investments in technological innovations, a so-called ‘normal management mode’ is defined. Employing this then shows how future yields and yield variances are likely to develop under normal management. On this basis, we finally identify which future innovations have the potential to maintain or increase barley yields at acceptable risk levels. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2165 |
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| Author |
Rötter, R. |
| Title |
Improving capacity of current crop models for simulating impacts of climatic extremes |
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Conference Article |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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ISI-MIP side event at at the Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2755 |
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