| Records |
| Author |
Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Lorite, I.J.; Ferrise, R.; Pirttioja, N.; Bindi, M.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hohn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. |
| Title |
Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| Volume |
264 |
Issue |
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Pages |
351-362 |
| Keywords |
Wheat adaptation; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision support; Response surface; Outcome confidence; Climate-Change Impacts; Response Surfaces; Wheat; Uncertainty; Yield; Simulation; 21St-Century; Productivity; Temperature; Projections |
| Abstract |
unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivwn L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures. |
| Address |
2019-01-07 |
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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| Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
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Editor |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title  |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5214 |
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| Author |
Sandhu, H.; Porter, J.R.; Wratten, S. |
| Title |
Experimental assessment of ecosystem services in agriculture |
Type |
Book Chapter |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
122-135 |
| Keywords |
CropM; |
| Abstract |
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| Address |
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| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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| Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
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Editor |
Wratten, S.; Sandhu, H.; Cullen, R.; Costanza, R. |
| Language |
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Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
Ecosystem Services in Agricultural and Urban Landscapes |
Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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ISBN |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2786 |
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| Author |
Porter, J.R.; Soussana, J.-F.; Fereres, E.; Long, S.; Mohren, F.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; von Braun, J. |
| Title |
European Perspectives: An Agronomic Science Plan for Food Security in a Changing Climate |
Type |
Book Chapter |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
| Abstract |
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| Publisher |
Co-Published With Imperial College Press |
Place of Publication |
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Editor |
Hillel, D.; Rosenzweig, C. |
| Language |
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Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Global and Regional Aspects and Implications |
Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, |
Series Issue |
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| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2732 |
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| Author |
Porter, J.R.; Xie, L.; Challinor, A.J.; Cochrane, K.; Howden, S.M.; Iqbal, M.M.; Lobell, D.B.; Travasso, M.I. |
| Title |
Food security and food production systems |
Type |
Book Chapter |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
485-533 |
| Keywords |
CropM |
| Abstract |
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| Publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
Place of Publication |
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA |
Editor |
Field, C.B.; Barros, V.R.; Dokken, D.J.; Mach, K.J.; Mastrandrea, M.D.; Bilir, T.E.; Chatterjee, M.; Ebi, K.L.; Estrada, Y.O.; Genova, R.C.; Girma, B.; Kissel, E.S.; Levy, A.N.; MacCracken, S.; Mastrandrea, P.R.; White, L.L. |
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Series Title |
Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) |
Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vuln |
Series Issue |
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ISBN |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2734 |
| Permanent link to this record |
