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Author |
Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
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Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year  |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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Volume |
72 |
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Pages |
287-303 |
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Keywords |
uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat |
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Abstract |
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. |
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English |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4521 |
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Author |
Sharif, B.; Olesen, J.E. |
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Title |
Effects of tillage, fertilizer and residue management on crop growth dynamics in winter wheat at Foulum, Denmark |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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Notes |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2827 |
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Author |
Sharif, B.; Olesen, J.E. |
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Title |
Probabilistic assessment of agroclimatic effects on winter rapeseed yield in Denmark |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2828 |
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Author |
Olesen, J.E. |
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Title |
Rainfed intensive crop systems |
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Book Chapter |
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Year |
2014 |
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CropM |
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Cabi |
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Wallingford |
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Fuhrer, J.; Gregory, P.J. |
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Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2686 |
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Author |
Manevski, K.; Børgesen, D.; Andersen, N.; Olesen, J.E. |
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Title |
Maize production and nitrogen dynamics under current and warmer climate in Denmark: simulations with the DAISY model |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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Notes |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2624 |
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