| Records |
Author  |
Bellocchi, G.; Ma, S. |
| Title |
Results of uncalibrated grassland model runs |
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Report |
| Year |
2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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3 |
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Pages |
D-L2.3 |
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| Abstract |
This deliverable focuses on the some illustrative results obtained with the grassland models selected (D-L2.1.1) to simulate biomass and flux data from grassland sites in Europe and peri-Mediterranean regions (D-L2.1.1 and D-L2.1.2). This is a blind exercise, carried out without model calibration. The complete set of results will include simulations from calibrated models. The results shown are illustrative of the methodology adopted for grassland model intercomparison in MACSUR. The insights gained from this ongoing study are relevant for some crop and vegetation models, which in some cases proved comparable to grassland-specific models to simulate biomass data from managed grasslands. The results reported here cannot be considered conclusive. Additional results will be published as they become available together with calibration results, as well as the comprehensive evaluation of models with fuzzy logic-based indicators. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2234 |
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Bellocchi, G.; Ma, S.; Köchy, M.; Braunmiller, K. |
| Title |
Datasets classification and criteria for data requirements |
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Report |
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2013 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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2 |
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D-L2.1.2 |
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This deliverable focuses on the collation, screening, and consolidation of data for selected grassland sites in Europe and peri-Mediterranean regions. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2245 |
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Bellocchi, G.; Ma, S.; Köchy, M.; Braunmiller, K. |
| Title |
Identified grassland-livestock production systems and related models |
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Report |
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2013 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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2 |
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Pages |
D-L2.1.1 |
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This report describes grassland-livestock production systems, as selected for model-basedstudies. A list of grassland models was identified for evaluation against such datasets(WP2) and application at reference farm (WP3) and regions (WP4) across Europe and peri-European countries. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2244 |
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Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Dell’Unto, D.; Deligios, P.; Doro, L.; Lacetera, N.; Mula, L.; Pasqui, M.; Quaresima, S.; Vitali, A.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: Insights from a case study in the Mediterranean basin |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
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147 |
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65-75 |
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Adaptation of farms to CC; Mediterranean region; Discrete Stochastic Programming; Regional Atmospheric Modelling System; Crop models; Livestock models |
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The Mediterranean region has always shown a marked inter-annual variability in seasonal weather, creating uncertainty in decisional processes of cultivation and livestock breeding that should not be neglected when modeling farmers’ adaptive responses. This is especially relevant when assessing the impact of climate change (CC), which modifies the atmospheric variability and generates new uncertainty conditions, and the possibility of adaptation of agriculture. Our analysis examines this aspect reconstructing the effects of inter-annual climate variability in a diversified farming district that well represents a wide range of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems in the Mediterranean area. We used a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System and a weather generator to generate 150 stochastic years of the present and near future climate. Then, we implemented calibrated crop and livestock models to estimate the corresponding productive responses in the form of probability distribution functions (PDFs) under the two climatic conditions. We assumed these PDFs able to represent the expectations of farmers in a discrete stochastic programming (DSP) model that reproduced their economic behaviour under uncertainty conditions. The comparison of the results in the two scenarios provided an assessment of the impact of CC, also taking into account the possibility of adjustment allowed by present technologies and price regimes. The DSP model is built in blocks that represent the farm typologies operating in the study area, each one with its own resource endowment, decisional constraints and economic response. Under this latter aspect, major differences emerged among farm typologies and sub-zones of the study area. A crucial element of differentiation was water availability, since only irrigated C3 crops took full advantage from the fertilization effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Rainfed crop production was depressed by the expected reduction of spring rainfall associated to the higher temperatures. So, a dualism emerges between the smaller impact on crop production in the irrigated plain sub-zone, equipped with collective water networks and abundant irrigation resources, and the major negative impact in the hilly area, where these facilities and resources are absent. However intensive dairy farming was also negatively affected in terms of milk production and quality, and cattle mortality because of the increasing summer temperatures. This provides explicit guidance for addressing strategic adaptation policies and for framing farmers’ perception of CC, in order to help them to develop an awareness of the phenomena that are already in progress, which is a prerequisite for effective adaptation responses. |
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English |
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0308521x |
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CropM, LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4756 |
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Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Dell’Unto, D.; Doro, L.; Lacetera, N.; Mula, L.; Pasqui, M.; Quaresima, S.; Vitali, A.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
Productive and economic adaptation of Mediterranean agriculture to climate change (Produktive und wirtschaftliche Anpassung der mediterranen Landwirtschaft an den Klimawandel) |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Jahrbuch der ÖGA |
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24 |
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213-222 |
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24. Jahrestagung der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Agrarökonomie, 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-26, Vienna |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5027 |
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