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Author |
Dass, P.; Müller, C.; Brovkin, V.; Cramer, W. |
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Title |
Can bioenergy cropping compensate high carbon emissions from large-scale deforestation of high latitudes |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Earth System Dynamics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Earth System Dynamics |
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4 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
409-424 |
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Keywords |
land-use change; global vegetation model; soil carbon; climate-change; surface albedo; cover changes; snow cover; remind-r; forest; productivity |
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Abstract |
Numerous studies have concluded that deforestation of the high latitudes result in a global cooling. This is mainly because of the increased albedo of deforested land which dominates over other biogeophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms in the energy balance. This dominance, however, may be due to an underestimation of the biogeochemical response, as carbon emissions are typically at or below the lower end of estimates. Here, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL for a better estimate of the carbon cycle under such large-scale deforestation. These studies are purely theoretical in order to understand the role of vegetation in the energy balance and the earth system. They must not be mistaken as possible mitigation options, because of the devastating effects on pristine ecosystems. For realistic assumptions of land suitability, the total emissions computed in this study are higher than that of previous studies assessing the effects of boreal deforestation. The warming due to biogeochemical effects ranges from 0.12 to 0.32 degrees C, depending on the climate sensitivity. Using LPJmL to assess the mitigation potential of bioenergy plantations in the suitable areas of the deforested region, we find that the global biophysical bioenergy potential is 68.1 +/- 5.6 EJ yr(-1) of primary energy at the end of the 21st century in the most plausible scenario. The avoided combustion of fossil fuels over the time frame of this experiment would lead to further cooling. However, since the carbon debt caused by the cumulative emissions is not repaid by the end of the 21st century, the global temperatures would increase by 0.04 to 0.11 degrees C. The carbon dynamics in the high latitudes especially with respect to permafrost dynamics and long-term carbon losses, require additional attention in the role for the Earth’s carbon and energy budget. |
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English |
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2190-4987 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4486 |
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Author |
Waha, K.; Müller, C. |
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Title |
The essential temperature routines in LPJmL for wheat simulations |
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2013 |
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81-84 |
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CropM |
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Alderman, P.D.; Quilligan, E.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Reynolds, M.P. |
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Proceedings of the Workshop ‘Modeling Wheat Response to High Temperature’ CIMMYT, El Batan, Texcoco, Mexico, June 19-21, 2013 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2887 |
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Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Basso, B.; Ruane, A.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Brisson, N.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Pertuzzi; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Müller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
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Title |
Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Crop Water Use under Climate Change |
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2013 |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2767 |
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Müller, C.; Stehfest, E.; van Minnen, J.; Strengers, B.; von, B.W.; Beusen, A.; Schaphoff, S.; Kram, T.; Lucht, W. |
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Title |
Reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance under climate and land-use change |
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2013 |
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European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2013, 2013-04-07 to 2013-04-12 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2672 |
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Müller, C.; Elliott, J. |
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The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison – Approaches, insights and caveats of modeling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale |
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2013 |
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FAO expert consultation on climate change and trade, Rome, Italy, 2013-11-05 to 2013-11-06 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2670 |
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