| Records |
Author  |
Müller, C.; Robertson, R.D. |
| Title |
Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
| Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
37-50 |
| Keywords |
climate change; crop modeling; agricultural productivity; land use; greenhouse-gas emissions; soil organic-carbon; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; elevated co2; land-use; system model; wheat yields; maize yields; agriculture |
| Abstract |
Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change. |
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| ISSN |
0169-5150 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4533 |
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| Author |
Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Levermann, A. |
| Title |
Food security: Fertilizing hidden hunger |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
| Volume |
4 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
540-541 |
| Keywords |
elevated CO2; human-nutrition; climate-change; carbon; face |
| Abstract |
Atmospheric CO2 fertilization may go some way to compensating the negative impact of climatic changes on crop yields, but it comes at the expense of a deterioration of the current nutritional value of food. |
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| ISSN |
1758-678x 1758-6798 |
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Editorial Material |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4537 |
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| Author |
Müller, C.; Elliott, J. |
| Title |
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison – Approaches, insights and caveats of modeling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
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Conference |
FAO expert consultation on climate change and trade, Rome, Italy, 2013-11-05 to 2013-11-06 |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2670 |
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| Author |
Müller, C., Elliott J |
| Title |
AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2668 |
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| Author |
Müller, C., Elliott J |
| Title |
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
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Conference |
4th Annual AgMIP Workshop, New York, USA, 2013-10-28 to 2013-10-30 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2667 |
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