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Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Muller, C. |
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Title |
Forecasting technological change in agriculture-An endogenous implementation in a global, and use model |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
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Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
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81 |
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236-249 |
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Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use; intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration |
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Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 029 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (”Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995-2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0040-1625 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4789 |
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Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Agriculture in a 4°C warmer world |
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2013 |
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A day about Future Agriculture, Ultuna/Uppsala, Sweden, 2013-10-16 to 2013-10-17 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2609 |
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Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Panel Discussion: A Place at the Table |
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2013 |
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2013 Borlaug Dialogue: Biotechnology, Sustainability and Climate Volatility, Des Moines, Iowa, USA, 2013-10-15 to 2013-10-18 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2611 |
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Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Sustainable land use and climate change: Monitoring, modelling, managing |
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2013 |
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Vortrag im Rahmen des Berufungsverfahrens zur Besetzung der W3-S-Professur Nachhaltige Landnutzung und Klimawandel, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Landw.-Gärtn. Fakultät, 2013-01-08 to 2013-01-08 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2612 |
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Author |
Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Von globalen Klimawandel zu regionalen Anpassungsstrategien |
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2013 |
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Vom globalen Klimawandel zu regionalen Anpassungsstrategien, Göttingen, Germany, 2013-09-02 to 2013-09-03 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2613 |
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