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Lotze-Campen, H.; von Witzke, H.; Noleppa, S.; Schwarz, G. |
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Title |
Science for food, climate protection and welfare: An economic analysis of plant breeding research in Germany |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
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136 |
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79-84 |
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Plant breeding; CO2 emissions; Cost–benefit analysis; Social rate of return; Agricultural research policy |
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Highlights • We analyze the economic effects of plant breeding research in Germany. • Effects of reduced CO2 emissions due to productivity increases are being quantified. • Expansion of global agricultural area has been reduced by 1–1.5 million ha. • CO2 emissions have been reduced by 160–235 million tons. • German plant breeding research has an economic value of 10.8–15.6 billion EUR. Abstract We analyze the economic effects of plant breeding research in Germany. In addition to market effects, for the first time also effects of reduced CO2 emissions due to productivity increases are being quantified. The analysis shows that investments in German plant breeding research in the period 1991–2010 have reduced the global expansion of agricultural area by 1–1.5 million hectares. This has led to reduced CO2 emissions of 160–235 million tons. The economic value generated by plant breeding research, through increased production and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, is estimated at 10.8–15.6 billion EUR in the same period. This can be translated into a social rate of return on research investment in the range of 40–80% per year. Projections for the period 2011–2030 generate a return rate in the range of 65–140% per year. Investments into plant breeding research in Germany are highly profitable from a societal point of view. At the same time, our results show significant under-investments in agricultural research in Germany. These results provide a good justification for policy-makers to reverse funding cuts for public agricultural research over the last decades and to improve institutional conditions for private research, e.g. through better protection of intellectual property rights. |
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0308521x |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4999 |
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Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M. |
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Title |
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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45 |
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1 |
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103-116 |
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energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system |
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Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise. |
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English |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4532 |
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Lotze-Campen, H.; Verburg, P.H.; Popp, A.; Lindner, M.; Verkerk, P.J.; Moiseyev, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Helming, J.; Tabeau, A.; Schulp, C.J.E.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Lavalle, C.; e Silva, F.B.; Walz, A.; Bodirsky, B. |
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A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways |
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Journal Article |
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2018 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
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18 |
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3 |
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751-762 |
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Land use change; Integrated modelling; Cross-scale interaction; Nature protection; Impact assessment |
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Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales. |
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1436-3798 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5004 |
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Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Agriculture in a 4°C warmer world |
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2013 |
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A day about Future Agriculture, Ultuna/Uppsala, Sweden, 2013-10-16 to 2013-10-17 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2609 |
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Author |
Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Panel Discussion: A Place at the Table |
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2013 |
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2013 Borlaug Dialogue: Biotechnology, Sustainability and Climate Volatility, Des Moines, Iowa, USA, 2013-10-15 to 2013-10-18 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2611 |
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