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Stevanović, M.; Popp, A.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Humpenöder, F.; Müller, C.; Weindl, I.; Dietrich, J.P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Kreidenweis, U.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Wang, X. |
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Title |
Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Environmental Science and Technology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Science and Technology |
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51 |
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1 |
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365-374 |
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The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread. |
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0013-936x |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5007 |
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Riahi, K.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kriegler, E.; Edmonds, J.; O’Neill, B.C.; Fujimori, S.; Bauer, N.; Calvin, K.; Dellink, R.; Fricko, O.; Lutz, W.; Popp, A.; Cuaresma, J.C.; KC, S.; Leimbach, M.; Jiang, L.; Kram, T.; Rao, S.; Emmerling, J.; Ebi, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Humpenöder, F.; Da Silva, L.A.; Smith, S.; Stehfest, E.; Bosetti, V.; Eom, J.; Gernaat, D.; Masui, T.; Rogelj, J.; Strefler, J.; Drouet, L.; Krey, V.; Luderer, G.; Harmsen, M.; Takahashi, K.; Baumstark, L.; Doelman, J.C.; Kainuma, M.; Klimont, Z.; Marangoni, G.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Obersteiner, M.; Tabeau, A.; Tavoni, M. |
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Title |
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
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42 |
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153-168 |
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Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP; Climate change; RCP; Community scenarios; Mitigation; Adaptation |
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Abstract This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6). |
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2017-06-13 |
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0959-3780 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5008 |
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Biewald, A.; Sinabell, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Zimmermann, A.; Lehtonen, H. |
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Title |
Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe |
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Report |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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T1.2-XC16.2 |
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Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined. |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5034 |
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Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Heinke, J.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
Environmental impacts of grassland management and livestock production |
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2014 |
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The potential of grasslands to sequester carbon and provide feed for livestock production depends on the one hand on climatic conditions but secondly on management and grazing pressure. Using a global vegetation model considering different management and grazing options, effects of livestock density on primary productivity can be assessed. It is expected that low animal densities enhance productivity whereas increasing grazing pressure may deteriorate grass plants. Thus, the optimal animal density depend on the specific primary production of the pasture and optimal grazing intensity. Using these optimal grass yields, the impacts of livestock production on resource use is assessed by applying the global land use model MAgPIE. This model integrates a detailed representation of the livestock sector and integrates socio-economic regional information with spatially explicit biophysical data. With scenario analysis we analyze the impact of livestock production on future deforestation and land use. Our results indicate that the reduction of animal derived calory demand has a huge potential to spare land for nature and reduce deforestation. On the supply side, feeding efficiency gains can help to decrease demand for land and overall biomass requirements. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5078 |
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Weindl, I.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Muller, C.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenoder, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Schaphoff, S.; Popp, A. |
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Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices |
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Journal Article |
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2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
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47 |
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121-132 |
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Livestock; Productivity; Dietary changes; Consumptive water use; Water scarcity; Water resources; Climate-Change Mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Global Vegetation; Model; Land-Use; Comprehensive Assessment; Fresh-Water; Systems; Requirements; Irrigation; Carbon |
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Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand-and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshWater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km(3) yr(-1)). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19-36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26-69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies. |
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2018-01-08 |
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English |
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0959-3780 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5183 |
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