| Records |
| Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
| Title |
Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Food Science |
Volume  |
24 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
219-234 |
| Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy |
| Abstract |
Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production. |
| Address |
2016-07-22 |
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| Language |
English |
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| ISSN |
1459-6067 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4750 |
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| Author |
Lehtonen, H.S.; Irz, X. |
| Title |
Impacts of reducing red meat consumption on agricultural production in Finland |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agriculture and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agriculture and Food Science |
| Volume |
22 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
356-370 |
| Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; food demand; greenhouse gas mitigation; agricultural policy; agricultural economics |
| Abstract |
This paper summarises the simulated effects on Finnish agrcultural production and trade of a 20% decrease in Finnish demand for red meat (beef, pork, lamb). According to our results, reduced red meat consumption would be offset by increased consumption of poultry meat, eggs, dairy products and fish, as well as small increases in consumption of fruits and vegetables, peas, nuts, cereal products and sweets. By including the derived demand changes in an agricultural sector model, we show that livestock production in Finland, incentivised by national production-linked payments for milk and bovine animals, would decrease by much less than 20% due to the complex nature of agricultural production and trade. Overall, assuming unchanged consumer preferences and agricultural policy, a 20% reduction in red meat consumption is not likely to lead to a substantial decrease in livestock production or changed land use, or greenhouse gas emissions, from Finnish agriculture. |
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English |
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1795-1895 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4607 |
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| Author |
Köchy, M.; Bishop, J.; Lehtonen, H.; Scollan, N.; Webber, H.; Zimmermann, A.; Bellocchi, G.; Bannink, A.; Biewald, A.; Ferrise, R.; Helming, K.; Kipling, R.P.; Milford, A.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Curth-van Middelkoop, J. |
| Title |
Challenges and research gaps in the area of integrated climate change risk assessment for European agriculture and food security |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
10 |
Issue |
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Pages |
H0.1-D |
| Keywords |
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| Abstract |
Priorities in addressing research gaps and challenges should follow the order of importance, which in itself would be a matter of defining goals and metrics of importance, e.g. the extent, impact and likelihood of occurrence. For improving assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture for achieving food security and other sustainable development goals across the European continent, the most important research gaps and challenges appear to be the agreement on goals with a wide range of stakeholders from policy, science, producers and society, better reflection of political and societal preferences in the modelling process, and the reflection of economic decisions in farm management within models. These and other challenges could be approached in phase 3 of MACSUR. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4950 |
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| Author |
Biewald, A.; Sinabell, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Zimmermann, A.; Lehtonen, H. |
| Title |
Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
10 |
Issue |
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Pages |
T1.2-XC16.2 |
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| Abstract |
Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined. |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5034 |
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| Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
| Title |
Evaluating competitiveness of clover-grass as a resilient feed production option in Finland |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
9 C6 - |
Issue |
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Pages |
Sp9-4 |
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| Abstract |
Clover-grasses address the following objectives:– Decreased input use (N-fertilization), reduced dependency ofinorganic N => reduced GHG emissions– Possibility for increased protein content of silage, reduceddependency on purchased protein feed supplement (homegrown proteins, resilience)© Natural Resources Institute Finland– Better utilisation of farmland in the context of climate changein the north: Higher T – improved N fixation– Compatible with sustainable agriculture and sustainableintensification: more output with the same inputs / the sameoutput with reduced (non-renewable) inputs• In contrast: Shifting to silage maize increases N fertilisation– Major shift from grasslands to silage maize in e.g. Denmark 1. Small cost reductions in clover-grass cultivation, or clover-grasspremiums, may or may not increase clover cultivation- Their effectiveness is uncertain and subject to prices2. N tax is effective, but is not a suitable policy action in currentfinancial situation of farms (milk crisis 2015-2016)3. However, the results suggest that a 25% higher N price lead to© Natural Resources Institute Finlandsignificantly higher clover grass area and a small reduction ínmilk output – with no cost reductions or extra premiums!4. To increase clover cultivation, price ratios should be adjusted!5. If increasing clover -grass yield, a robust increase in clovergrass areas may realise, with small benefits for farm economyand overall production – How much more clover grass yieldcould be attained at low costs? A topic for further discussionand analysis |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4853 |
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