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Daccache, A.; Ciurana, J.S.; Diaz, J.A.R.; Knox, J.W. |
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Title |
Water and energy footprint of irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean region |
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2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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9 |
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12 |
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124014 |
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food security; CO2 emissions; nexus; water productivity; water resources; climate-change; southern spain; management; impacts; deficit; grids |
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Abstract |
Irrigated agriculture constitutes the largest consumer of freshwater in the Mediterranean region and provides a major source of income and employment for rural livelihoods. However, increasing droughts and water scarcity have highlighted concerns regarding the environmental sustainability of agriculture in the region. An integrated assessment combining a gridded water balance model with a geodatabase and GIS has been developed and used to assess the water demand and energy footprint of irrigated production in the region. Modelled outputs were linked with crop yield and water resources data to estimate water (m(3) kg(-1)) and energy (CO2 kg(-1)) productivity and identify vulnerable areas or `hotspots’. For a selected key crops in the region, irrigation accounts for 61 km(3) yr(-1) of water abstraction and 1.78 Gt CO2 emissions yr-1, with most emissions from sunflower (73 kg CO2/t) and cotton (60 kg CO2/t) production. Wheat is a major strategic crop in the region and was estimated to have a water productivity of 1000 tMm(-3) and emissions of 31 kg CO2/t. Irrigation modernization would save around 8 km(3) of water but would correspondingly increase CO2 emissions by around +135\%. Shifting from rain-fed to irrigated production would increase irrigation demand to 166 km(3) yr(-1) (+137\%) whilst CO2 emissions would rise by +270\%. The study has major policy implications for understanding the water-energy-food nexus in the region and the trade-offs between strategies to save water, reduce CO2 emissions and/or intensify food production. |
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English |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4747 |
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Author |
Knox, J. |
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Title |
Meta-analysis of recent scientific evidence on climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-30 |
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Projected changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security (Daccache et al., 2014). We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven crops (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 67 original publications from an initial screening of 1424 studies. Whilst similar studies exist for Africa and South Asia (Roudier et al., 2011; Knox et al., 2012), surprisingly, no such comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Our study focussed on the biophysical impacts of climate change on productivity (i.e. yield per unit area) and did not consider ‘food production’ as this is dependent on many ‘non-biophysical’ factors, such as international trade policy and world markets. The data relate to the projected mean yield variations for each crop type, for all crop models, all GCM models and all time slices.For Europe, most studies projected a positive impact on yield; the reported increases largely being due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations enhancing both productivity and resource use efficiencies. Overall, a mean yield increase of +14% was identified, but with large differences between individual crops (e.g. wheat +22%; potato +12%) and regions (e.g. northern Europe +17%; southern Europe +7%). It is important to note that projected yield data were not available for all crops in all regions, so lack of a significant response may in part be due to the absence, or limited number of studies for certain crops and/or regions. Furthermore, the results include all reported yield projections, for all time slices, for all GCM combinations (whether single or ensemble) and for all crop modelling approaches (whether based on simple statistical trends or more complex biophysical modelling approaches). This highlights the magnitude of variability that exists when all possible sources of uncertainty are included. Further statistical analyses were conducted to disaggregate the data by time slice, climate and crop model to identify which factors were likely to contribute most to yield variations and uncertainty.The SR showed that evidence of climate change impacts on crop yield in Europe is extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato but very limited for barley, rice and rye. Interpreting the reported yield observations was compounded by ‘effect modifiers’ or reasons for heterogeneity. These included different emission scenarios and climate ensembles, implicit assumptions regarding crop varieties, the agricultural systems studied, and assumed levels of mechanization and crop husbandry. Despite its limitations, the SR helps identify where further research should be targeted and regions where adaptation will be most needed. It confirms that climate change is likely to increase productivity of Europe’s major agricultural cropping systems, with more favourable impacts in northern and central Europe. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2145 |
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Author |
Knox, J.; Daccache, A.; Hess, T.; Haro, D. |
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Title |
Meta-analysis of climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
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Environmental Research Letters |
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Environ. Res. Lett. |
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11 |
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113004 |
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Abstract |
Future changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n = 729) we show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%. For wheat and sugar beet, average yield changes of +14% and +15% are projected, respectively. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (−11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. The implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe are discussed. |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5011 |
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