| Records |
| Author |
Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C. |
| Title |
Site-specific impacts of climate change on wheat production across regions of Germany using different CO2 response functions |
Type  |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
| Volume |
52 |
Issue |
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Pages |
22-32 |
| Keywords |
climate change; co2 effect; crop yield; water use efficiency; groundwater; modeling nitrogen dynamics; winter-wheat; carbon-dioxide; assessing uncertainties; agricultural crops; potential impact; enrichment face; elevated co2; soil; simulation |
| Abstract |
Impact of climate change on crop growth, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching in winter wheat production in Germany was assessed using the agro-ecosystem model HERMES with a downscaled (WETTREG) climate change scenario A1B from the ECHAM5 global circulation model. Three alternative algorithms describing the impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop growth (a simple Farquhar-type algorithm, a combined light-use efficiency – maximum assimilation approach and a simple scaling of the maximum assimilation rate) in combination with a Penman-Monteith approach which includes a simple stomata conduction model for evapotranspiration under changing CO2 concentrations were compared within the framework of the HERMES model. The effect of differences in regional climate change, site conditions and different CO2 algorithms on winter wheat yield, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching was assessed in 22 regional simulation case studies across Germany. Results indicate that the effects of climate change on wheat production will vary across Germany due to different regional expressions of climate change projection. Predicted yield changes between the reference period (1961-1990) and a future period (2021-2050) range from -0.4 t ha(-1), -0.8 t ha(-1) and -0.6 t ha(-1) at sites in southern Germany to +0.8 t ha(-1), +0.6 t ha(-1) and +0.8 t ha(-1) at coastal regions for the three CO2 algorithms, respectively. On average across all regions, a relative yield change of +0.9%, +3.0%, and +6.0%, respectively, was predicted for Germany. In contrast, a decrease of -11.6% was predicted without the consideration of a CO2 effect. However, simulated yield changes differed even within regions as site conditions had a strong influence on crop growth. Particularly, groundwater-affected sites showed a lower vulnerability to increasing drought risk. Groundwater recharge was estimated to change correspondingly to changes in precipitation. The consideration of the CO2 effect on transpiration in the model led to a prediction of higher rates of annual deep percolation (+16 mm on average across all sites), which was due to higher water-use efficiency of the crops. In contrast to groundwater recharge, simulated nitrogen leaching varied with the choice of the photosynthesis algorithm, predicting a slight reduction in most of the areas. The results underline the necessity of high-resolution data for model-based regional climate change impact assessment and development of adaptation measures. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4527 |
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| Author |
Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
| Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
72 |
Issue |
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Pages |
287-303 |
| Keywords |
uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat |
| Abstract |
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4521 |
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Bassu, S.; Brisson, N.; Durand, J.-L.; Boote, K.; Lizaso, J.; Jones, J.W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Adam, M.; Baron, C.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Boogaard, H.; Conijn, S.; Corbeels, M.; Deryng, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Gayler, S.; Grassini, P.; Hatfield, J.; Hoek, S.; Izaurralde, C.; Jongschaap, R.; Kemanian, A.R.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kim, S.-H.; Kumar, N.S.; Makowski, D.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Priesack, E.; Pravia, M.V.; Sau, F.; Shcherbak, I.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Timlin, D.; Waha, K. |
| Title |
How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
20 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
2301-2320 |
| Keywords |
Carbon Dioxide/metabolism; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/growth & development/metabolism; Geography; Models, Biological; Temperature; Water/*metabolism; Zea mays/*growth & development/*metabolism; AgMIP; [Co2]; climate; maize; model intercomparison; simulation; uncertainty |
| Abstract |
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
1354-1013 |
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Article |
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CropM |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4510 |
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| Author |
Nendel, C.; Wieland, R.; Mirschel, W.; Specka, X.; Guddat, C.; Kersebaum, K.C. |
| Title |
Simulating regional winter wheat yields using input data of different spatial resolution |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
| Volume |
145 |
Issue |
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Pages |
67-77 |
| Keywords |
monica; agro-ecosystem model; dynamic modelling; scaling; input data; climate-change; crop yield; nitrogen dynamics; food security; mineral nitrogen; soil-moisture; scaling-up; model; maize; water |
| Abstract |
The success of using agro-ecosystem models for the high-resolution simulation of agricultural yields for larger areas is often hampered by a lack of input data. We investigated the effect of different spatially resolved soil and weather data used as input for the MONICA model on its ability to reproduce winter wheat yields in the Federal State of Thuringia, Germany (16,172 km(2)). The combination of one representative soil and one weather station was insufficient to reproduce the observed mean yield of 6.66 +/- 0.87 t ha(-1) for the federal state. Use of a 100 m x 100 m grid of soil and relief information combined with just one representative weather station yielded a good estimator (7.01 +/- 1.47 t ha(-1)). The soil and relief data grid used in combination with weather information from 14 weather stations in a nearest neighbour approach produced even better results (6.60 +/- 1.37 t ha(-1)); the same grid used with 39 additional rain gauges and an interpolation algorithm that included an altitude correction of temperature data slightly overpredicted the observed mean (7.36 +/- 1.17 t ha(-1)). It was concluded that the apparent success of the first two high-resolution approaches over the latter was based on two effects that cancelled each other out: the calibration of MONICA to match high-yield experimental data and the growth-defining and -limiting effect of weather data that is not representative for large parts of the region. At the county and farm level the MONICA model failed to reproduce the 1992-2010 time series of yields, which is partly explained by the fact that many growth-reducing factors were not considered in the model. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4498 |
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| Author |
Tao, F.; Roetter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Diaz-Ambrona, C.G.H.; Ines Minguez, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Cammarano, D.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F.; Dambreville, A.; Martre, P.; Rodriguez, L.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gaiser, T.; Hohn, J.G.; Salo, T.; Ferrise, R.; Bindi, M.; Schulman, A.H. |
| Title |
Designing future barley ideotypes using a crop model ensemble |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Europ. J. Agron. |
| Volume |
82 |
Issue |
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Pages |
144-162 |
| Keywords |
Water-Use Efficiency; Climate-Change; Nitrogen Dynamics; Systems; Simulation; Wheat Cultivars; Grain Weight; Yield; Growth; Fertilization; Adaptation; Adaptation; Breeding; Climate change; Crop simulation models; Impact; Genotype; Genetic traits |
| Abstract |
Climate change and its associated higher frequency and severity of adverse weather events require genotypic adaptation. Process-based ecophysiological modelling offers a powerful means to better target and accelerate development of new crop cultivars. Barley (Hordeum vulgare L) is an important crop throughout the world, and a good model for study of the genetics of stress adaptation because many quantitative trait loci and candidate genes for biotic and abiotic stress tolerance have been identified in it. Here, we developed a new approach to design future crop ideotypes using an ensemble of eight barley simulation models (i.e. APSIM, CropSyst, HERMES, MCWLA, MONICA, SIMPLACE, Sirius Quality, and WOFOST), and applied it to design climate-resilient barley ideotypes for Boreal and Mediterranean climatic zones in Europe. The results showed that specific barley genotypes, represented by sets of cultivar parameters in the crop models, could be promising under future climate change conditions, resulting in increased yields and low inter-annual yield variability. In contrast, other genotypes could result in substantial yield declines. The most favorable climate-zone-specific barley ideotypes were further proposed, having combinations of several key genetic traits in terms of phenology, leaf growth, photosynthesis, drought tolerance, and grain formation. For both Boreal and Mediterranean climatic zones, barley ideotypes under future climatic conditions should have a longer reproductive growing period, lower leaf senescence rate, larger radiation use efficiency or maximum assimilation rate, and higher drought tolerance. Such characteristics can produce substantial positive impacts on yields under contrasting conditions. Moreover, barley ideotypes should have a low photoperiod and high vernalization sensitivity for the Boreal climatic zone; for the Mediterranean, in contrast, it should have a low photoperiod and low vernalization sensitivity. The drought-tolerance trait is more beneficial for the Mediterranean than for the Boreal climatic zone. Our study demonstrates a sound approach to design future barley ideotypes based on an ensemble of well-tested, diverse crop models and on integration of knowledge from multiple disciplines. The robustness of model-aided ideotypes design can be further enhanced by continuously improving crop models and enhancing information exchange between modellers, agro-meteorologists, geneticists, physiologists, and plant breeders. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| Address |
2017-01-20 |
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English |
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Edition |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_MACSUR |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4935 |
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