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Sharif, B.; Mankowski, D.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Trnka, M.; Schelde, K.; Olsesen, J.E. |
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Empirical analysis on crop-weather relationships |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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D-C2.5 |
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There have been several studies, where process-based crop models are developed, used and compared in order to project crop production and corresponding model uncertainties under climate change. Despite many advances in this field, there are some correlations between climate variables and crop growth, such as pest and diseases, that is often absent in process-based models. Such relationships can be simulated using empirical models. In this study, several statistical techniques were applied on winter oilseed rape data collected in some European countries. The empirical models were then used to predict yield of winter oilseed rape in the field experiments during more than 20 years, up to 2013. Results suggest that newly developed regression techniques such as shrinkage methods work well both in yield projections and finding the influential climatic variables. Many of regression techniques agree in terms of yield prediction; however, choice of significant climate variables is rather sensitive to the choice of regression technique. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2092 |
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Kersebaum, K.C. |
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Title |
Simulating crop rotations and management across climatic zones in Europe – an intercomparison study using fifteen models |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-28 |
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Process based crop simulation models are widely used to assess crop production under current or future climate conditions. Most studies on climate impacts on crop growth are so far focussed on single crops and single-year simulations. However, it is known that the position of crops within a rotation can influence crop growth significantly due to carry-over effects between seasons. We compared crop models on crop rotation effects from five sites across Central Europe providing in total data of 301 cropping seasons and treatments. Treatments comprised irrigation, nitrogen (N) fertilisation, atmospheric [CO2], tillage, residue management, cover crops and soils. Crop rotations were simulated with 15 crop models as single-year simulations and/or continuous simulations over whole crop rotations in “restricted calibration” runs. Lower RMSE between observed and simulated crop yields were obtained for continuous runs as compared to single-year runs. Relatively low carry-over effects were observed due to equilibration of soil water over winter and high N fertilisation levels. Consistently, a sub-set of models applied to an additional rainfed Mediterranean site reproduced larger carry-over effects of soil water. Irrigation, N supply, cover crops and atmospheric [CO2] showed clearer effects than tillage and crop residue management. Model performance varied distinctly between crops showing the necessity to provide experimental data for model calibration also for less prominent crops. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2143 |
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Pohanková, E.; Hlavinka, P.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Dubrovský, M.; Fischer, M.; Balek, J.; Žalud, Z.; Hlavácová, M.; Trnka, M. |
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Pilot study: Field crop rotations modeling under present and future conditions in the Czech Republic using HERMES model |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-75 |
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The aim of this study is to compare the water and organic material balance, yields and other aspects estimated within crop rotations by the Hermes crop model for present and future climatic conditions in the Czech Republic. Moreover, this is a pilot study for the complex and continuous crop rotations modeling (using both single crop models and ensembles) in connection with transient climate change scenarios. For this purpose, three locations representing important agricultural regions of the Czech Republic (with different climatic conditions) were selected. The crop rotation (including spring barley, silage maize, winter wheat, winter rape, and winter wheat in the listed order) was simulated from 1981-2080. The period 1981-2010 was covered by measured meteorological data, and the period 2011-2080 was represented by a transient synthetic weather series from the weather generator M&Rfi. The generated data was based on five circulation models representing an ensemble of 18 CMIP3 global circulation models to preserve to a large degree the uncertainty of the original ensemble. Two types of crop management were compared, and the influences of soil quality, increasing atmospheric CO2 and magnitude of adaptation measure (in the form of sowing date changes) were also considered. According to the results, if a “dry” scenario (such as GFCM21) would occur, then all the C3 crops produced in drier regions would be devastated in a significant number of seasons; for example, by the 2070s, up to 19.5%, 21.5% and 47.0% of seasons with winter rape, spring barley and winter wheat, respectively, would have a yield level below 50% of the present yield. Negative impacts are likely even on premium-quality soils regardless of the use of a flexible sowing date and accounting for increasing CO2 concentrations. Moreover, in some cases, the use of catch crops can have negative impacts, exacerbating the soil water deficit for the subsequent crops. This study (submitted to Climate Research journal) will be used as a pilot for subsequent activities. In this area, following calculations (the same set of stations and updated climate scenarios) using growth models ensemble (currently includes 12 modeling approaches) started to estimate uncertainty aspects. Consequently, the analysis within wider range of conditions (across continents) and farming methods will be conducted. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2190 |
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Boote, K.J.; Porter, C.; Jones, J.W.; Thorburn, P.J.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Hoogenboom, G.; White, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L. |
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Sentinel site data for crop model improvement – definition and characterization |
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2015 |
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Advances in Agricultural Systems Modeling (7) |
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CropM; |
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ASA, CSSA, and SSSA |
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Madison, WI |
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Hatfield, J.L.; Fleisher, D. |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2338 |
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Hlavinka, P.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Dubrovský, M.; Pohanková, E.; Balek, J.; Žalud, Z.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Water balance and yield estimates for field crop rotations present versus future conditions based on transient scenarios |
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2014 |
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CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2478 |
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