| Records |
| Author |
Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Casellas, E.; Hoffman, H.; Bindi, M.; Doro, L.; Eckersten, H.; Gaiser, T.; Grosz, B.; Haas, E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Klatt, S.; Kuhnert, M.; Lewan, E.; Maharjan, G.R.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Specka, X.; Trombi, G.; Villa, A.; Wang, E.; Weihermueller, L.; Yeluripati, J.; Zhao, Z.; Ewert, F.; Bergez, J.-E. |
Title  |
Management and spatial resolution effects on yield and water balance at regional scale in crop models |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| Volume |
275 |
Issue |
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Pages |
184-195 |
| Keywords |
Drainage; Evapotranspiration; Aggregation; Decision rules; Scaling; winter-wheat yield; data aggregation; sowing dates; area index; input; data; carbon; growth; irrigation; productivity; assimilation |
| Abstract |
Due to the more frequent use of crop models at regional and national scale, the effects of spatial data input resolution have gained increased attention. However, little is known about the influence of variability in crop management on model outputs. A constant and uniform crop management is often considered over the simulated area and period. This study determines the influence of crop management adapted to climatic conditions and input data resolution on regional-scale outputs of crop models. For this purpose, winter wheat and maize were simulated over 30 years with spatially and temporally uniform management or adaptive management for North Rhine-Westphalia ((similar to)34 083 km(2)), Germany. Adaptive management to local climatic conditions was used for 1) sowing date, 2) N fertilization dates, 3) N amounts, and 4) crop cycle length. Therefore, the models were applied with four different management sets for each crop. Input data for climate, soil and management were selected at five resolutions, from 1 x 1 km to 100 x 100 km grid size. Overall, 11 crop models were used to predict regional mean crop yield, actual evapotranspiration, and drainage. Adaptive management had little effect (< 10% difference) on the 30-year mean of the three output variables for most models and did not depend on soil, climate, and management resolution. Nevertheless, the effect was substantial for certain models, up to 31% on yield, 27% on evapotranspiration, and 12% on drainage compared to the uniform management reference. In general, effects were stronger on yield than on evapotranspiration and drainage, which had little sensitivity to changes in management. Scaling effects were generally lower than management effects on yield and evapotranspiration as opposed to drainage. Despite this trend, sensitivity to management and scaling varied greatly among the models. At the annual scale, effects were stronger in certain years, particularly the management effect on yield. These results imply that depending on the model, the representation of management should be carefully chosen, particularly when simulating yields and for predictions on annual scale. |
| Address |
2020-02-14 |
| Corporate Author |
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| Language |
English |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5225 |
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| Author |
Trnka, M.; Feng, S.; Semenov, M.A.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Roetter, R.P.; Semeradova, D.; Klem, K.; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Meitner, J.; Balek, J.; Havlik, P.; Buntgen, U. |
| Title |
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Science Advances |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sci. Adv. |
| Volume |
5 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
eaau2406 |
| Keywords |
climate-change impacts; sub-saharan africa; atmospheric co2; crop; yields; drought; agriculture; variability; irrigation; adaptation; carbon |
| Abstract |
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas. |
| Address |
2020-02-14 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
2375-2548 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5227 |
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| Author |
Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Wu, L.; Sharif, B.; Öztürk, I.; Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Nendel, C.; Müller, C.; Waha, K.; Armas-Herrera, C.; Olesen, J.E.; Eitzinger, J.; Roggero, P.P.; Conradt, T.; Martre, P.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ventrella, D.; Rötter, R.P.; Wegehenkel, M.; Eckersten, H.; Lorite Torres, I.J.; Hernandez, C.G.; Launay, M.; De Wit, A.; Hoffmann, H.; Weigel, H.-J.; Manderscheid, R.; Beaudoin, N.; Constantin, J.; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Mary, B.; Ripoche, D.; Ruget, F. |
| Title |
Model inter-comparison on crop rotation effects – an intermediate report |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Abstract |
Data of diverse crop rotations from five locations across Europe were distributed to modelers to investigate the capability of models to handle complex crop rotations and management interactions. Crop rotations comprise various main crops (winter/spring wheat, winter/spring barley, rye, oat, maize, sugar beet, oil seed rape and potatoes) plus several catch crops. The experimental setup of the datasets included treatments such as modified soils, crops exchanged within the rotations, irrigation/rainfed, nitrogen fertilization, residue management, tillage and atmospheric CO2 concentration. 19 modeling teams registered to model either the whole rotation or single crops. Models which are capable to run the whole rotation should provide transient as well as single year simulations with a reset of initial conditions. In the first step only initial soil conditions (water and soil mineral N) of the first year and key phenological stages were provided to the modelers. For calibration, crop yields and biomass were provided for selected years but not for all seasons. In total the combination of treatments and seasons results in 301 years of simulation. Results were analyzed to evaluate the effect of transient simulation versus single-year simulation regarding crop yield, biomass, water and nitrogen balance components. Model results will be evaluated crop-specifically to identify crops with highest uncertainty and potential for model improvement. Full data will be provided to modelers for model-improvement and results will provide insights into model capabilities to reproduce treatments and crops. Further, the question of error propagation along the transient simulation of crop rotations will be addressed. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5104 |
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| Author |
Kersebaum, K.; C |
| Title |
Model intercomparison for calibrated models |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
4 |
Issue |
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Pages |
D-C1.6 |
| Keywords |
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| Abstract |
The study ROTATIONEFFECT aims to compare the output of different models simulating field data sets with multi-year crop rotations including different treatments.Within the first Step (1a2a) data sets (comprising a total of 301 crop growth seasons) for 5 locations in Europe were distributed to 15 interested modeller groups.For this step only minimal information for calibration were provided to the modellers. In total 15 modelling teams sent their “uncalibrated” results as single-year calculations and/or continuous calculations of rotation depending on the capability of the model. Results have been evaluated and the paper submitted (European Journal of Agronomy).Now, within the 2nd step (1b2b) modellers were provided with more information on the crop for the calibration of models. Again, results of calibrated runs were collected.6 models were capable to run the rotations as continuous runs and another set of 6 models provided single year simulations.A first overview of the improvement of predictions due to calibration has been produced. Result files have been uploaded to the web platform for CropM results at Aarhus University (Work package C2 – data management). No Label |
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Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2213 |
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| Author |
Kersebaum, K.C.; Malone, R.W.; Kaspar, T.C.; Ma, L.; Jaynes, D.B. |
| Title |
Modelling cover crop effects in a corn-soybean rotation on water and nitrogen tile drain fluxes |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
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Place of Publication |
Berlin (Germany) |
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poster |
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Conference |
International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM 2016, 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-17, Berlin, Germany |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4910 |
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