| Records |
| Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.; Trnka, M.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.R.; Kahiluoto, H. |
| Title |
Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecology and Evolution |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Evol. |
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages  |
4197-4214 |
| Keywords |
Adaptation; agroclimatic indicator; barley; crop simulation model; cultivar response diversity |
| Abstract |
THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections. |
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| Language |
English |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
2045-7758 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4576 |
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| Author |
Himanen, S.J.; Ketoja, E.; Hakala, K.; Rötter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Kahiluoto, H. |
| Title |
Cultivar diversity has great potential to increase yield for feed barley |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agronomy for Sustainable Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agron. Sust. Developm. |
| Volume |
33 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
519-530 |
| Keywords |
Crop cultivar; Diversity; Environmental responses; Regional yields; Yield security |
| Abstract |
This study shows an average yield increase of 415–1,338 kg ha−1 per unit increase of the Shannon diversity index for feed barley cultivar use. There is a global quest to increase food production sustainably. Therefore, judicious farmer choices such as selection of crop cultivars are increasingly important. Cultivar diversity is limited and, as a consequence, corresponding crop yields are highly impacted by local weather variations and global climate change. Actually, there is little knowledge on the relationships between yields of regional crops and cultivar diversity, that is evenness and richness in cultivar use. Here, we hypothesized that higher cultivar diversity is related to higher regional yield. We also assumed that the diversity-yield relationship depends on weather during the growing season. Our data were based on farm yield surveys of feed and malting barley, Hordeum vulgare L.; spring wheat, Triticum aestivum L.; and spring turnip rape, Brassica rapa L. ssp. oleifera, from 1998 to 2009, representing about 4,500–5,500 farms annually. We modeled the relationships between regional yields and Shannon diversity indices in high-yielding (south-west) and low-yielding (central-east) regions of Finland using linear mixed models. Our results show that an increase of Shannon diversity index increases yield of feed barley. Feed barley had also the greatest cultivar diversity. In contrast, an average yield decrease of 1,052 kg ha−1 per unit increase in Shannon index was found for spring rape in 2006 and 2008. Our findings show that cultivar diversification has potential to raise mean regional yield of feed barley. Increasing cultivar diversity thus offers a novel, sustainability-favoring means to promote higher yields. |
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English |
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1774-0746 1773-0155 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4603 |
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| Author |
Mäkinen, H.; Kaseva, J.; Trnka, M.; Balek, J.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Gobin, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Takáč, J.; Bezák, P.; Ventrella, D.; Ruget, F.; Capellades, G.; Kahiluoto, H. |
| Title |
Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
| Volume |
222 |
Issue |
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Pages |
209-217 |
| Keywords |
European wheat; Cultivar; Weather; Extreme; Climate change; Yield response; High-Temperature; Heat-Stress; Use Efficiency; Growth-Stages; Winter-Wheat; Yield; Crop; Barley; Tolerance |
| Abstract |
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21 degrees to 61.34 degrees and longitudes- 6.02 degrees to 26.24 degrees) during the period 1991-2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (>= 31 degrees C, >= 35 degrees C, or drought around heading; >= 35 degrees C from heading to maturity; excessive rainfall; heavy rainfall and low global radiation) led to marked yield penalties in a selected set of European cultivars, whereas few cultivars were found to with no yield penalty in such conditions. There were no European wheat cultivars that responded positively (+ 10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (- 15 degrees C and – 20 degrees C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently, a major future breeding challenge will be to evaluate the potential of combining such cultivar properties with other properties required under different growing conditions with, for example, long day conditions at higher latitudes, when the intensity and frequency of extremes rapidly increase. |
| Address |
2018-06-05 |
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English |
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Edition |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5200 |
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| Author |
Kahiluoto, H.; Rötter, R.; Webber, H.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
The Role of Modelling in Adapting and Building the Climate Resilience of Cropping Systems |
Type |
Book Chapter |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Issue |
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Pages |
204-215 |
| Keywords |
CropM |
| Abstract |
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CAB International |
Place of Publication |
Wallingford |
Editor |
Fuhrer, J.; Gregory, P.J. |
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Series Title |
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2513 |
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| Author |
Kahiluoto, H.; Kaseva, J.; Hakala, K.; Himanen, S.J.; Jauhiainen, L.; Rötter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Trnka, M. |
| Title |
Cultivating resilience by empirically revealing response diversity |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
| Volume |
25 |
Issue |
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Pages |
186-193 |
| Keywords |
generic approach; climate change; food security; agrifood systems; cultivars; adaptive capacity; climate-change; functional diversity; plant-communities; genetic diversity; biodiversity; ecosystems; management; redundancy; evenness; weather |
| Abstract |
Intensified climate and market turbulence requires resilience to a multitude of changes. Diversity reduces the sensitivity to disturbance and fosters the capacity to adapt to various future scenarios. What really matters is diversity of responses. Despite appeals to manage resilience, conceptual developments have not yet yielded a break-through in empirical applications. Here, we present an approach to empirically reveal the ‘response diversity’: the factors of change that are critical to a system are identified, and the response diversity is determined based on the documented component responses to these factors. We illustrate this approach and its added value using an example of securing food supply in the face of climate variability and change. This example demonstrates that quantifying response diversity allows for a new perspective: despite continued increase in cultivar diversity of barley, the diversity in responses to weather declined during the last decade in the regions where most of the barley is grown in Finland. This was due to greater homogeneity in responses among new cultivars than among older ones. Such a decline in the response diversity indicates increased vulnerability and reduced resilience. The assessment serves adaptive management in the face of both ecological and socioeconomic drivers. Supplier diversity in the food retail industry in order to secure affordable food in spite of global price volatility could represent another application. The approach is, indeed, applicable to any system for which it is possible to adopt empirical information regarding the response by its components to the critical factors of variability and change. Targeting diversification in response to critical change brings efficiency into diversity. We propose the generic procedure that is demonstrated in this study as a means to efficiently enhance resilience at multiple levels of agrifood systems and beyond. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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English |
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0959-3780 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4525 |
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