| Records |
Author  |
Havlík, P.E.S., S. Fuss, D. Leclere, M. Obersteiner, A. Mosnier, H. Valin, N. Khabarov |
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Linking bio-physical, bottom-up and top-do wn economic models to analyze climate change impacts and adaptation on Austrian agriculture |
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Conference Article |
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2013 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM workshop: Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security, The Natural Resource and Environmental Research Center (NRERC), University of Haifa, Israel, 2013-03-03 t |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2468 |
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| Author |
Leclère, D.; Havlík, P. |
| Title |
Modelling heat stress on livestock: how can we reach long-term and global coverage |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
| Volume |
7 |
Issue |
03 |
Pages |
248-249 |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4867 |
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| Author |
Leclère, D.; Havlík, P. |
| Title |
Modelling heat stress on livestock: how can we reach long-term and global coverage |
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Report |
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2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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8 |
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SP8-12 |
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Conference presentation PDF |
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LiveM2016: International livestock modelling conference – Modelling grassland-livestock systems under climate change |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4839 |
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Mendes, L.B.; Herrero, M.; Havlík, P.; Mosnier, A.; Balieiro, S.F.; Moreira, R.E.M.; Obersteiner, M. |
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Simulation of enteric methane emissions from individual beef cattle in tropical pastures of improving quality: a case study with the model RUMINANT |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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7 |
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03 |
Pages |
233-234 |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4873 |
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Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlík, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Von Lampe, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason d’Croz, D.; van Meijl, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Müller, C.; Popp, A.; Robertson, R.; Robinson, S.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D. |
| Title |
Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
| Volume |
111 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
3274-3279 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/*economics; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Climate Change; Commerce/statistics & numerical data; Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Forecasting; Humans; *Models, Economic; agricultural productivity; climate change adaptation; integrated assessment; model intercomparison |
| Abstract |
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. |
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English |
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0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4535 |
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