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Persson, T.; Höglind, M. |
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Assessment of harvest security of timothy under climate change condition using a set of simple criteria |
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2013 |
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Proceedings of the 22nd International Grasslands Congress, Sydney, Australia, 2013-09-15 to 2013-09-19 |
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2715 |
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Øygarden, L.; Höglind, M.; Harstad, M.; Hoveid, Ø. |
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Modelling European Agriculture with Climate change for food security |
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2013 |
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Bioforsk conference 2013. Proceedings in; Bioforsk Fokus Vol. 8 Nr 2. 2013. pp 372-374. Editors; Erling Fløistad & Morten Gunther. 390 pp. ISBN 978-82-17-00998-6., 2013-02-06 to 2013-02-07 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2689 |
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Höglind, M., Persson T. |
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Yields and harvest security in Nordic forage production in the future – examples from simulation studies using the LINGRA model |
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2013 |
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NJF Seminar 455 Nordic Forage Model Applications- predicting forage yield and quality in a variable and changing climate, Forssa, Finland, NJF Report Vol. 9 No. 1 2013, p 4-5., 2013-01-30 to 2013-01-31 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2484 |
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Höglind, M.; Persson, T.; van Oijen, M. |
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Identifying target traits for forage grass breeding under a changing climate in Norway using the BASGRA model |
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2013 |
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Proceedings of the 22nd International Grasslands Congress, Sydney, Australia, 2013-09-15 to 2013-09-19 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2483 |
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Höglind, M.; Thorsen, S.M.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models |
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2013 |
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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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170 |
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103-113 |
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climatic variability; frost damage; grass modelling; ice damage; multi-model ensemble; elevated co2 concentration; phleum-pratense l; timothy regrowth; change scenarios; winter survival; meadow fescue; crop yields; growth; frost; temperature |
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Forage-based dairy and livestock production is the backbone of agriculture in Northern Europe in economic terms. Changes in growing conditions that affect forage grass yield may have great economic consequences. This study assessed the impact of climate change on two grass species, timothy and ryegrass, at 14 locations in Northern Europe (Iceland, Scandinavia, Baltic countries) in a near-future scenario (2040-2065) compared with the baseline period 1960-1990. Local-scale climate scenarios were based on the CMIP3 multi-model ensembles of 15 global climate models in order to quantify the uncertainty in the impacts relating to highly uncertain projections of future climate. Potential yield of timothy, the most important perennial forage grass in Northern Europe, was simulated under the assumption of optimal overwintering conditions and current CO2 level, in order to obtain an estimate of the effect of changes in summer climate per se. The risk of frost and ice damage during winter was also assessed. The simulation results demonstrated that potential grass yield will increase throughout the study area, mainly as a result of increased growing temperatures. The yield response to climate change was slightly larger in irrigated than non-irrigated conditions (14% and 11%, respectively), due to larger water deficit for the 2050 scenario. However, a geo-climatic gradient was evident, with the largest predicted yield response at western locations. A geo-climatic gradient was also revealed with respect to potential frost damage, which was predicted to increase during winter in some areas east of the Baltic Sea for timothy, and for a larger number of locations both east and west of the Baltic Sea for perennial ryegrass. The risk of frost damage in spring was predicted to increase mainly in western parts of the study area. If frost damage to perennial ryegrass increases during winter, the expected increase in winter temperature due to global warming may not necessarily improve overwintering conditions, so the growing zone may not necessarily expand to the north and east of the study area by 2050. The uncertainty in impacts was frequently, but not consistently, greater in western than eastern locations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, LiveM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4492 |
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