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Author (up) Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Doro, L.; Giraldo, L.; Ledda, L.; Pasqui, M.; Roggero, P.P.
Title Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agricultural Systems
Volume 117 Issue Pages 1-12
Keywords changed climate variability; dsp; epic; adaptation; water management; irrigation; simulating impacts; co2 concentration; crop production; productivity; maize; yield; growth; model; photosynthesis; agriculture
Abstract Short-term perspectives appear to be relevant in formulating adaptation measures to changed climate variability (CCV) as a part of the European Rural Development Policy (RDP). Indeed, short-run CCV is the variation that farmers would perceive to such an extent that a political demand would be generated for adapting support measures. This study evaluates some relevant agronomic and economic impacts of CCV as modelled in a near future time period at the catchment scale in a rural district in Sardinia (Italy). The effects of CCV are assessed in relation to the availability of irrigation water and the irrigation needs of maize. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the impact of key climatic variables on the irrigation water requirements and yields of maize. A three-stage discrete stochastic programming model was then applied to simulate management and economic responses to those changes. The overall economic impact of a simulated CCV was found to be primarily caused by reduced stability in the future supply of irrigation water. Adaptations to this instability will most likely lead to a higher level of groundwater extraction and a reduction in the demand for labour. Changed climate variability will most likely reduce the income potential of small-scale farming. The most CCV-vulnerable farm typologies were identified, and the implications were discussed in relation to the development of adaptation measures within the context of the Common Agricultural Policy of European Union. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0308521x ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4489
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Author (up) Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Doro, L.; Giraldo, L.; Ledda, L.; Pasqui, M.; Roggero, P.P.
Title An integrated assessment of the impacts of changing climate variability on agricultural productivity and profitability in an irrigated Mediterranean catchment Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Water Resource Management Abbreviated Journal Water Resource Manage.
Volume 27 Issue 10 Pages 3607-3622
Keywords discrete stochastic programming; climate change variability; adaptation to climate change; net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; water availability; epic crops model; economic impact of climate change; precipitation; uncertainty; region; series; yield; model; scale; wheat; gis
Abstract Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ETN), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ETN may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0920-4741 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4487
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Author (up) Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Giraldo, L.; Roggero, P.P.
Title Climate change and irrigated farming in the Mediterranean: lower expectation of favorable conditions to profitability rather than harshening of adverse conditions Type Manuscript
Year Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2397
Permanent link to this record