| Records |
| Author |
Hjelkrem, A.-G.R.; Höglind, M.; van Oijen, M.; Schellberg, J.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration for testing robustness of the BASGRA model in different environments |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
| Volume |
359 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
80-91 |
| Keywords |
Metropolis-hasting; Morris method; Reducing complexity; Robustness |
| Abstract |
Highlights • The parameters to be fixed were consistent across sites. • Model calibration must be performed separately for each specific case. • Possible to reduce model parameters from 66 to 45. • Strong model reductions must be avoided. • The error term for the training data were characterised by timing (phase shift). Abstract Proper parameterisation and quantification of model uncertainty are two essential tasks in improvement and assessment of model performance. Bayesian calibration is a method that combines both tasks by quantifying probability distributions for model parameters and outputs. However, the method is rarely applied to complex models because of its high computational demand when used with high-dimensional parameter spaces. We therefore combined Bayesian calibration with sensitivity analysis, using the screening method by Morris (1991), in order to reduce model complexity by fixing parameters to which model output was only weakly sensitive to a nominal value. Further, the robustness of the model with respect to reduction in the number of free parameters were examined according to model discrepancy and output uncertainty. The process-based grassland model BASGRA was examined in the present study on two sites in Norway and in Germany, for two grass species (Phleum pratense and Arrhenatherum elatius). According to this study, a reduction of free model parameters from 66 to 45 was possible. The sensitivity analysis showed that the parameters to be fixed were consistent across sites (which differed in climate and soil conditions), while model calibration had to be performed separately for each combination of site and species. The output uncertainty decreased slightly, but still covered the field observations of aboveground biomass. Considering the training data, the mean square error for both the 66 and the 45 parameter model was dominated by errors in timing (phase shift), whereas no general pattern was found in errors when using the validation data. Stronger model reduction should be avoided, as the error term increased and output uncertainty was underestimated. |
Address  |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
0304-3800 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5010 |
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Grosz, B.; Dechow, R.; Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Wallach, D.; Coucheney, E.; Lewan, E.; Eckersten, H.; Specka, X.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Nendel, C.; Kuhnert, M.; Yeluripati, J.; Kiese, R.; Haas, E.; Klatt, S.; Teixeira, E.; Bindi, M.; Trombi, G.; Moriondo, M.; Doro, L.; Roggero, P.P.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, E.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Tao, F.; Rötter, R.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Weihermüller, L.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F |
| Title |
The implication of input data aggregation on upscaling of soil organic carbon changes |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
|
| Abstract |
|
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
MACSUR Science Conference |
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
MACSUR Science Conference, 2015-04-08 to 2015-04-10, Reading, United Kingdom |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5038 |
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Hoffmann, H.; Gang, Z.; Van Bussel, L.G.J.; Enders, A.; Specka, X.; Sosa, C.; Yeluripati, J.; Tao, F.; Constantin, J.; Casellas, E.; Teixeira, E.; Grosz, B.; Doro, L.; Zhao, Z.; Nendel, C.; Kiese, R.; Raynal, H.; Eckersten, H.; Klatt, S.; Edwin, H.; Wang, E.; Kuhnert, M.; Lewan, E.; Bach, M.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Rötter, R.; Roggero, P.P.; Wallach, D.; Krauss, G.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Sensitivity of crop models to spatial aggregation of soil and climate data |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
|
| Abstract |
|
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
Annual conference of the German/Austrian Agronomical Society & Max-Eyth-Society IS - |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5041 |
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Hoffmann, M.P.; Haakana, M.; Asseng, S.; Höhn, J.G.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Fronzek, S.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Kassie, B.T.; Paff, K.; Rezaei, E.E.; Rodríguez, A.; Semenov, M.; Srivastava, A.K.; Stratonovitch, P.; Tao, F.; Chen, Y.; Rötter, R.P. |
| Title |
How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
| Volume |
159 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
199-208 |
| Keywords |
|
| Abstract |
Highlights • The larger simulated attainable yield for a specific crop season, the larger the yield gap. • Average size of the yield gap is not affected by the inter-annual variability of attainable yield. • Technology levels (resource input and accessibility) determine average yield gap. • To reduce yield gaps in rainfed environments, farmers need to improve season-specific crop management. Abstract Provision of food security in the face of increasing global food demand requires narrowing of the gap between actual farmer’s yield and maximum attainable yield. So far, assessments of yield gaps have focused on average yield over 5–10 years, but yield gaps can vary substantially between crop seasons. In this study we hypothesized that climate-induced inter-annual yield variability and associated risk is a major barrier for farmers to invest, i.e. increase inputs to narrow the yield gap. We evaluated the importance of inter-annual attainable yield variability for the magnitude of the yield gap by utilizing data for wheat and maize at ten sites representing some major food production systems and a large range of climate and soil conditions across the world. Yield gaps were derived from the difference of simulated attainable yields and regional recorded farmer yields for 1981 to 2010. The size of the yield gap did not correlate with the amplitude of attainable yield variability at a site, but was rather associated with the level of available resources such as labor, fertilizer and plant protection inputs. For the sites in Africa, recorded yield reached only 20% of the attainable yield, while for European, Asian and North American sites it was 56–84%. Most sites showed that the higher the attainable yield of a specific season the larger was the yield gap. This significant relationship indicated that farmers were not able to take advantage of favorable seasonal weather conditions. To reduce yield gaps in the different environments, reliable seasonal weather forecasts would be required to allow farmers to manage each seasonal potential, i.e. overcoming season-specific yield limitations. |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
phase 2+ |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
0308521x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5185 |
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Faye, B.; Webber, H.; Naab, J.B.; MacCarthy, D.S.; Adam, M.; Ewert, F.; Lamers, J.P.A.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Ruane, A.; Gessner, U.; Hoogenboom, G.; Boote, K.; Shelia, V.; Saeed, F.; Wisser, D.; Hadir, S.; Laux, P.; Gaiser, T. |
| Title |
Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 degrees C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
| Volume |
13 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
034014 |
| Keywords |
1.5 degrees C; West Africa; food security; climate change; DSSAT; SIMPLACE; Climate-Change Impacts; Sub-Saharan Africa; Food Security; Heat-Stress; Canopy Temperature; Paris Agreement; Pearl-Millet; Maize Yield; Crop; Yields; Model; MACSUR or FACCE acknowledged. |
| Abstract |
To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 degrees C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 degrees C versus 2.0 degrees C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 degrees C compared to 1.5 degrees C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security. |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
1748-9326 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5196 |
| Permanent link to this record |
