| Records |
| Author |
Angulo, C.; Rötter, R.; Trnka, M.; Pirttioja, N.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Characteristic ‘fingerprints’ of crop model responses to weather input data at different spatial resolutions |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Volume  |
49 |
Issue |
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Pages |
104-114 |
| Keywords |
crop model; weather data resolution; aggregation; yield distribution; climate-change scenarios; areal unit problem; simulation-model; winter-wheat; system model; impacts; europe; yield; productivity; precipitation |
| Abstract |
Crop growth simulation models are increasingly used for regionally assessing the effects of climate change and variability on crop yields. These models require spatially and temporally detailed, location-specific, environmental (weather and soil) and management data as inputs, which are often difficult to obtain consistently for larger regions. Aggregating the resolution of input data for crop model applications may increase the uncertainty of simulations to an extent that is not well understood. The present study aims to systematically analyse the effect of changes in the spatial resolution of weather input data on yields simulated by four crop models (LINTUL-SLIM, DSSAT-CSM, EPIC and WOFOST) which were utilized to test possible interactions between weather input data resolution and specific modelling approaches representing different degrees of complexity. The models were applied to simulate grain yield of spring barley in Finland for 12 years between 1994 and 2005 considering five spatial resolutions of daily weather data: weather station (point) and grid-based interpolated data at resolutions of 10 km x 10 km; 20 km x 20 km; 50 km x 50 km and 100 km x 100 km. Our results show that the differences between models were larger than the effect of the chosen spatial resolution of weather data for the considered years and region. When displaying model results graphically, each model exhibits a characteristic ‘fingerprint’ of simulated yield frequency distributions. These characteristic distributions in response to the inter-annual weather variability were independent of the spatial resolution of weather input data. Using one model (LINTUL-SLIM), we analysed how the aggregation strategy, i.e. aggregating model input versus model output data, influences the simulated yield frequency distribution. Results show that aggregating weather data has a smaller effect on the yield distribution than aggregating simulated yields which causes a deformation of the model fingerprint. We conclude that changes in the spatial resolution of weather input data introduce less uncertainty to the simulations than the use of different crop models but that more evaluation is required for other regions with a higher spatial heterogeneity in weather conditions, and for other input data related to soil and crop management to substantiate our findings. Our results provide further evidence to support other studies stressing the importance of using not just one, but different crop models in climate assessment studies. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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Edition |
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1161-0301 |
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Article |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4598 |
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| Author |
Olesen, J.E.; Børgesen, C.D.; Elsgaard, L.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.P.; Skjelvåg, A.O.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Börjesson, T.; Trnka, M.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Brisson, N.; Eitzinger, J.; van Asselt, E.D.; Oberforster, M.; van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. |
| Title |
Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Addit. Contam. Part A |
| Volume |
29 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
1527-1542 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods/trends; Avena/growth & development; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Edible Grain/*growth & development; Europe; Flowering Tops/growth & development; Forecasting/methods; Germination; Humans; Models, Biological; Models, Statistical; Seasons; Seeds/growth & development; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Triticum/growth & development; Zea mays/growth & development |
| Abstract |
The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied. |
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English |
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1944-0049 1944-0057 |
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Article |
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CropM |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4590 |
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| Author |
Elsgaard, L.; Børgesen, C.D.; Olesen, J.E.; Siebert, S.; Ewert, F.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rötter, R.P.; Skjelvåg, A.O. |
| Title |
Shifts in comparative advantages for maize, oat and wheat cropping under climate change in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Addit. Contam. Part A |
| Volume |
29 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
1514-1526 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/*economics/trends; Animals; Avena/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; *Climate Change/economics; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; Europe; *Food Safety; Forecasting/methods; Fungi/growth & development/metabolism; Humans; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Mycotoxins/analysis/biosynthesis; Soil Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Triticum/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; Uncertainty; Weather; Zea mays/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology |
| Abstract |
Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45-65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45-55°N, oat had its maximum at 55-65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops. |
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English |
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1944-0049 1944-0057 |
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Article |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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CropM |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4585 |
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Liu, B.; Martre, P.; Ewert, F.; Porter, J.R.; Challinor, A.J.; Mueller, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Waha, K.; Thorburn, P.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ahmed, M.; Balkovic, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Bindi, M.; Cammarano, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Dumont, B.; Espadafor, M.; Rezaei, E.E.; Ferrise, R.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Gao, Y.; Horan, H.; Hoogenboom, G.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jones, C.D.; Kassie, B.T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Klein, C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Maiorano, A.; Minoli, S.; San Martin, M.M.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.J.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Roetter, R.P.; Semenov, M.A.; Stockle, C.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Van der Velde, M.; Wallach, D.; Wang, E.; Webber, H.; Wolf, J.; Xiao, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Asseng, S. |
| Title |
Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
25 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
1428-1444 |
| Keywords |
1.5 degrees C warming; climate change; extreme low yields; food security; model ensemble; wheat production; Climate-Change; Crop Yield; Impacts; Co2; Adaptation; Responses; Models; Agriculture; Simulation; Growth |
| Abstract |
Efforts to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2 degrees C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 degrees C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 degrees C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2 degrees C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. |
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2019-04-27 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1354-1013 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5219 |
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| Author |
van Bussel, L.G.J.; Stehfest, E.; Siebert, S.; Müller, C.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Global Ecology and Biogeography |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. |
| Volume |
24 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
1018-1029 |
| Keywords |
Agricultural management; crop calendars; cultivar; variety characteristics; global crop modelling; global harvest dates; phenology; climate-change; winter-wheat; annual crops; photoperiod sensitivity; geographical variation; temperature; responses; adaptation; cultivars; model |
| Abstract |
AimTo derive location-specific parameters that reflect the geographic differences among cultivars in vernalization requirements, sensitivity to day length (photoperiod) and temperature, which can be used to simulate the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. LocationGlobal. Methods Based on crop calendar observations and literature describing the large-scale patterns of phenological characteristics of cultivars, we developed algorithms to compute location-specific parameters to represent this large-scale pattern. Vernalization requirements were related to the duration and coldness of winter, sensitivity to day length was assumed to be represented by the minimum and maximum day lengths occurring at a location, and sensitivity to temperature was related to temperature conditions during the vegetative development phase of the crop. Results Application of the derived location-specific parameters resulted in high agreement between simulated and observed lengths of the cropping period. Agreement was especially high for wheat, with mean absolute errors of less than 3 weeks. In the main maize cropping regions, cropping periods were over- and underestimated by 0.5-1.5 months. We also found that interannual variability in simulated wheat harvest dates was more realistic when accounting for photoperiod effects. Main conclusions The methodology presented here provides a good basis for modelling the phenological characteristics of cultivars at the global scale. We show that current global patterns of growing season length as described in cropping calendars can be largely reproduced by phenology models if location-specific parameters are derived from temperature and day length indicators. Growing seasons can be modelled more accurately for wheat than for maize, especially in warm regions. Our method for computing parameters for phenology models from temperature and day length offers opportunities to improve the simulation of crop productivity by crop simulation models developed for large spatial areas and for long-term climate impact projections that account for adaptation in the selection of varieties |
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Edition |
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1466-822x |
ISBN |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4729 |
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