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Author Liu, B.; Martre, P.; Ewert, F.; Porter, J.R.; Challinor, A.J.; Mueller, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Waha, K.; Thorburn, P.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ahmed, M.; Balkovic, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Bindi, M.; Cammarano, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Dumont, B.; Espadafor, M.; Rezaei, E.E.; Ferrise, R.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Gao, Y.; Horan, H.; Hoogenboom, G.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jones, C.D.; Kassie, B.T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Klein, C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Maiorano, A.; Minoli, S.; San Martin, M.M.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.J.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Roetter, R.P.; Semenov, M.A.; Stockle, C.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Van der Velde, M.; Wallach, D.; Wang, E.; Webber, H.; Wolf, J.; Xiao, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Asseng, S. doi  openurl
  Title Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming Type Journal Article
  Year 2019 Publication Global Change Biology Abbreviated Journal Glob. Chang. Biol.  
  Volume 25 Issue 4 Pages 1428-1444  
  Keywords 1.5 degrees C warming; climate change; extreme low yields; food security; model ensemble; wheat production; Climate-Change; Crop Yield; Impacts; Co2; Adaptation; Responses; Models; Agriculture; Simulation; Growth  
  Abstract Efforts to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2 degrees C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 degrees C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 degrees C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2 degrees C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.  
  Address 2019-04-27  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1354-1013 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 5219  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Lorite, I.J.; Ferrise, R.; Pirttioja, N.; Bindi, M.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hohn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. doi  openurl
  Title Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations Type Journal Article
  Year 2019 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology  
  Volume 264 Issue Pages 351-362  
  Keywords Wheat adaptation; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision support; Response surface; Outcome confidence; Climate-Change Impacts; Response Surfaces; Wheat; Uncertainty; Yield; Simulation; 21St-Century; Productivity; Temperature; Projections  
  Abstract unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivwn L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.  
  Address 2019-01-07  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0168-1923 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 5214  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, N.; Carter, T.R.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M.-F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Francois, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczaki, J.; Lorite, I.J.; Minet, J.; Ines Minguez, M.; Montesino, M.; Moriondo, M.; Mueller, C.; Nendel, C.; Ozturk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rotter, R.P. doi  openurl
  Title Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change Type Journal Article
  Year 2018 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agric. Syst.  
  Volume 159 Issue Pages 209-224  
  Keywords Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemble; Sensitivity analysis; Wheat; Climate-Change; Crop Models; Probabilistic Assessment; Simulating; Impacts; British Catchments; Uncertainty; Europe; Productivity; Calibration; Adaptation  
  Abstract Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (-2 to +9 degrees C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.  
  Address 2018-01-25  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0308-521x ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 5186  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodriguez, A.; Lorite, I.J.; Bindi, M.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Palosuo, T.; Pirttioja, N.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hoehn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. doi  openurl
  Title Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment Type Journal Article
  Year 2018 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agric. Syst.  
  Volume 159 Issue Pages 260-274  
  Keywords Wheat adaptation; Sensitivity analysis; Crop model ensemble; Rainfed, Mediterranean cropping system; AOCK concept; Iberian Peninsula; Simulation-Model; Change Impacts; Crop; Uncertainty; Ensemble; Europe; Yield; Productivity; Irrigation  
  Abstract Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the “According to Our Current Knowledge” (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T.),[CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.  
  Address 2018-01-25  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0308-521x ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 5184  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Dumont, B. url  openurl
  Title Uncertainty linked to crop modelling in order to develop decision support tools Type Book Whole
  Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages 193 pp  
  Keywords  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis Ph.D. thesis  
  Publisher Université de Liège Place of Publication Liège Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title PhD  
  Series Volume PhD Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 5154  
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