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Author (up) Cortignani, R.; Dono, G.
Title Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy Type Journal Article
Year 2018 Publication Environmental Science and Policy Abbreviated Journal Environ. Sci. Pol.
Volume 81 Issue Pages 26-35
Keywords Agricultural policy; Climate change; Bio-economic model; Integrated Assessment; Temperature-Humidity Index; Adaptation Pathways; Maximum-Entropy; Model; Cap; Uncertainty; Irrigation; Management; Scenarios; Systems
Abstract The European Union (EU) has recently reformed its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and, in parallel, has completely abolished the production quotas for milk. These changes will have important consequences for the use of land, of inputs (i.e., water and chemicals) and on the economic performance of rural areas. It is of interest to evaluate the integrated impact of these modifications and of climate change (CC), since the latter could neutralize or reverse some desired effects of the former. For this purpose, this paper evaluates the potential impact of the abolition of milk quotas, as well as of the reform of the first pillar of CAP in two different climate scenarios (present and near future). A bio-economic model simulates the possible adaptation of various farm types in an agricultural area of Southern Italy to these changes, given the available technological options and current market conditions. The main results show that the considered policy changes have small positive impacts on economic and environmental factors of the study area. However, some farm types are more affected. CC can effectively attenuate or reverse several of those effects, especially in some farm types. These results can inform the planning of future changes to the CAP, which will have to act in the context of deeper climate alteration.
Address 2018-03-02
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
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ISSN 1462-9011 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5193
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Author (up) Cortignani, R.; Dono, G.
Title Simulation of the impact of greening measures in an agricultural area of the southern Italy Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Land Use Policy Abbreviated Journal Land Use Policy
Volume 48 Issue Pages 525-533
Keywords agricultural policy; supply analysis; mathematical programming; maximum-entropy; level; models
Abstract Together, sustainable management of natural resources and climate action form one of the three objectives of the 2014-2020 Common Agricultural Policy. This objective is being addressed by replacing the existing direct payments under Pillar 1 with a basic payment, combined with an additional payment conditional on farmers undertaking agricultural practices beneficial for the climate and the environment, a policy referred to as greening. In this study, the impact of greening was assessed using a hybrid model calibrated using positive mathematical programming. The model describes the macro-types of farm production in a Mediterranean agricultural area. The results show that greening was not beneficial throughout the study area and only some farm types have been particularly affected. However, greening appears to have a positive impact on curtailing the use of chemicals, particularly nitrogen, and on crop diversity. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
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ISSN 0264-8377 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4746
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Author (up) Dono, G.
Title Awareness of climate change for adaptation of the farm sector Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 4 Issue Pages SP4-5
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Area Expedition Conference TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2195
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Author (up) Dono, G.
Title The economic impact of changes in climate variability on milk production in the area of Grana Padano Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-18
Keywords
Abstract Climate variability (CV) normally influences production and farm management, and climate change (CC) has precisely the effect of changing this variability. Thus, models that estimate the economic impact of CC, integrating with climatic models, agronomic, and livestock, must represent the implications of this variability on farm management. This study describes an economic model based on Discrete Stochastic Programming (DSP) which assesses the impact of CC on milk production in the Grana Padano area. The model is based on 23 farm typologies from FADN that represent 856 farms in Piacenza and Cremona, two of the most important provinces for Grana Padano production. The results of the model were projected at the regional scale. The climate scenarios, current and future, are generated with a Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The forage production under these scenarios is estimated with the EPIC agronomic model. Estimates on milk production and livestock mortality are based on studies conducted in the Po valley. The nutritional needs of the cattle are estimated with the CNCPS model. Probability distribution functions (PDF) express the relations between the CV and the productive variables under both climate scenarios. These PDFs represent the expectations of farmers on the productive-climate variability in the DSP model, which is PMP calibrated based on land distribution observed in a reference year. Comparing the model results in the two scenarios indicates the effects of CC, given the opportunity to adapt the use of resources and techniques of cultivation. The structure of the model, and its economic results are presented and discussed, along with the strengths and weaknesses of this approach. No Label
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Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2133
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Author (up) Dono, G.
Title Climate change impact on production and income of Mediterranean farming systems: a case study Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-17
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Abstract Adaptation to climate change calls for local responses. The impact of a 2020-30 climate scenario was assessed on a 54,000 ha Mediterranean district characterized by a variety of farming systems (FS), ranging from low-input rainfed (42% of the district area and 16% of the district net income) to high-input irrigated. Climate was generated with a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System nested into a full coupled atmosphere-ocean global simulation model, under the A1B emission scenario. Crop responses to climate were assessed using EPIC after calibration. The Temperature Humidity Index was used to assess the impact on dairy cow milk yield. Farmer choices were simulated on 13 representative FS by an hybrid model of supply, territory and farm. The adaptive choices were simulated through Discrete Stochastic Programming, fed by probability distribution functions output of crop and animal models.  The expected decrease in spring rainfall (-33%) will affect hay-crop production and the net income (NI) of rainfed livestock farms (-5 to -12%). The increased summer temperature will affect dairy cows NI up to -5.9%. Rice production is expected to increase up to +10%. Overall, the NI of irrigated and rainfed farms will be -2.1%  and -5.4% of the current NI respectively, with livestock FS being the most affected and rice and horticultural FS the most resilient. Results will provide an ideal mediating object for engaging policy makers and stakeholders in designing visionary adaptive strategies. No Label
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Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2132
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