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Dalgaard, T.; Hutchings, N.; Noe, E. |
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Methods for regional scale farming systems modelling and uncertainty assessment – sustainability assessment case studies of production, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from grassland based systems |
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2014 |
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In the EU Joint-Programming-Initiative: Modelling European Agriculturewith Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR, LiveM: http://www.macsur.eu/index.php/livestock-modelling) we develop a research frameworkfor the modelling and sustainability assessment of livestock and grasslandbased farming systems at farm and regional scales.Based on results from related research and model development in Denmark,methodologies used for regional scaling, the description of data requirementsand sources, and methods to predict the effect and effectiveness of climate-and environment related policy measures are developed. In this study we present results from farm modelling in a study areaaround Viborg, Western Denmark using the http://www.Farm-N.dk/ model (Env.Pol. 159 3183-3192), including thedistribution of N-surpluses into different types of losses, and a comparisonwith empirical studies of farm nitrogen balances in the Danish study and fiveadditional European landscapes (Biogeosciences 9, 5303–5321). Based on this,methods and development needs for the mapping and uncertainty assessment ofnutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions are discussed, referring to the presentdevelopment of the Farm-AC model and ongoing scenario studies in e.g. the www.dNmark.org project. In these scenarios, regional-scale policy measures areimplemented via the responses of a range of stakeholders, such as farmers,public interest groups, regulators and politicians. When modelling the outcomeof the policy measures implementation, it is often assumed that stakeholdersrespond as economically rational entities. However, social and cultural factorsare also known to play a role and modelling methods that permit these factorsto be taken into account will also be discussed. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5102 |
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Saetnan, E.; Kipling, P.; Scollan, D.; Bartley, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Hutchings, J.; Dalgaard, T.; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A. |
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MACSUR LiveM – a knowledge-hub for integrated modelling of climate change impacts on livestock production systems: lessons learned and future developments |
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2014 |
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LiveM |
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Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security, Madrid, Spain, 2014-05-19 to 2014-05-20 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2781 |
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Dalgaard, T. |
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Models for regional scale farming system evaluation of climate change mitigation options and environmental impact assessment |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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Sp5-15 |
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The aim of the present paper is to exemplify and discuss the importance of farm scale modeling in relation to The EU Joint Programming Initiative (JPI-FACCE) knowledge hub on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change project.In particular, livestock production systems include complex interactions, with non-linear relationships between input factors, production, emissions, local climate as well as natural resources (e.g. soil types, rotational land versus permanent grasslands etc.). Moreover, management options pursued by the different types of farmers and other relevant decision makers are important to integrate. Consequently, results of regional scale impact assessments depend on the farming systems model approach, the approach to upscale results, and the inclusion of the relevant stakeholders and decision makers at the scales considered.Different farming systems models are reviewed, including the existing dynamic and static biophysical models. Finally, procedures for upscaling and validity testing of synthesized model results at regional scales are presented. Based on a discussion of these procedures, recommendations for hot-spot analyses in farming systems with regard to integrated climate change adaptation and mitigation for a sustainable food production are synthesized, and the potentials for integration of recommended policies and farm management options into overarching models in order to assess their impact on the regional to global scales are discussed. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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2130 |
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Dalgaard, T.; Kjeldsen, C.; Meyer-Aurich, A.; Özkan, S.; Rolinski, S.; Köchy, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Brouwer, F.; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A.; Kipling, R. |
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Farming systems models for regional scale impact assessment in Europe – case studies of N-losses and greenhouse gas emissions |
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2014 |
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LiveM |
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Scaling in global, regional and farm models, 2014-09-24 to 2014-09-24 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2380 |
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Kipling, P.; Saetnan, R.; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A.; Scollan, D.; Bartley, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Hutchings, J.; Dalgaard, T. |
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Modelling interactions between climate and livestock pathogen transmission, Pirbright Institute, UK |
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2014 |
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LiveM |
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Workshop: Modelling interactions between climate and livestock pathogen transmission, 2014-01-22 to 2014-01-22 |
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2534 |
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