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Author Humpenöder, F.; Popp, A.; Stevanovic, M.; Müller, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Bonsch, M.; Dietrich, J.P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Weindl, I.; Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Environmental Science and Technology Abbreviated Journal Environ Sci Technol  
  Volume 49 Issue 11 Pages 6731-6739  
  Keywords  
  Abstract Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.  
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  ISSN 0013-936x ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 4998  
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Author Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication PLoS One Abbreviated Journal PLoS One  
  Volume 10 Issue 11 Pages e0139201  
  Keywords  
  Abstract Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.  
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  ISSN 1932-6203 ISBN Medium  
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  Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 4997  
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Author Humpenöder, F.; Popp, A.; Dietrich, J.P.; Klein, D.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bonsch, M.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Weindl, I.; Stevanovic, M.; Müller, C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Environmental Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Environ. Res. Lett.  
  Volume 9 Issue 6 Pages 064029  
  Keywords climate change mitigation; afforestation; bioenergy; carbon capture and storage; land-use modeling; land-based mitigation; carbon sequestration; land-use change; crop productivity; carbon capture; energy; storage; model; food; conservation; agriculture; scenarios  
  Abstract The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based climate change mitigation strategies for carbon removal: (1) afforestation and (2) bioenergy in combination with carbon capture and storage technology (bioenergy CCS). In our approach, a global tax on GHG emissions aimed at ambitious climate change mitigation incentivizes land-based mitigation by penalizing positive and rewarding negative CO2 emissions from the land-use system. We analyze afforestation and bioenergy CCS as standalone and combined mitigation strategies. We find that afforestation is a cost-efficient strategy for carbon removal at relatively low carbon prices, while bioenergy CCS becomes competitive only at higher prices. According to our results, cumulative carbon removal due to afforestation and bioenergy CCS is similar at the end of 21st century (600-700 GtCO(2)), while land-demand for afforestation is much higher compared to bioenergy CCS. In the combined setting, we identify competition for land, but the impact on the mitigation potential (1000 GtCO(2)) is partially alleviated by productivity increases in the agricultural sector. Moreover, our results indicate that early-century afforestation presumably will not negatively impact carbon removal due to bioenergy CCS in the second half of the 21st century. A sensitivity analysis shows that land-based mitigation is very sensitive to different levels of GHG taxes. Besides that, the mitigation potential of bioenergy CCS highly depends on the development of future bioenergy yields and the availability of geological carbon storage, while for afforestation projects the length of the crediting period is crucial.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN 1748-9326 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 4627  
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Author Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Heinke, J.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Pasture harvest, carbon sequestration and feeding potentials under different grazing intensities Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Advances in Animal Biosciences Abbreviated Journal Advances in Animal Biosciences  
  Volume 6 Issue 01 Pages 43-45  
  Keywords global dynamic vegetation model; LPJmL; grasslands; livestock production  
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  Notes CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 4541  
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Author Popp, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Weindl, I.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Bonsch, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Müller, C.; Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Stevanovic, M.; Dietrich, J.P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Land-use protection for climate change mitigation Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change  
  Volume 4 Issue 12 Pages 1095-1098  
  Keywords avoided deforestation; forest conservation; carbon emissions; co2 emissions; productivity; scarcity; stocks; redd  
  Abstract Land-use change, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, is a massive source of carbon emissions and contributes substantially to global warming(1-3). Therefore, mechanisms that aim to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation are widely discussed, A central challenge is the avoidance of international carbon leakage if forest conservation is not implemented globally’’, Here, We show that forest conservation schemes, even if implemented globally, could lead to another type of carbon leakage by driving cropland expansion in non-forested areas that are not subject to forest conservation schemes (non-forest leakage). These areas have a smaller. but still considerable potential to store carbon(5,6). We show that a global forest policy could reduce carbon emissions by 77 Gt CO2, but would still allow for decreases in carbon stocks of non-forest land by 96 Gt CO2, until 2100 due to non-forest leakage effects. Furthermore; abandonment of agricultural hand and associated carbon uptake through vegetation regrowth is hampered. Effective mitigation measures thus require financing structures and conservation investments that cover the full range of carbon-rich ecosystems. However, our analysis indicates that greater agricultural productivity increases would be needed to compensate for such restrictions on agricultural expansion.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN 1758-678x 1758-6798 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, LiveM, TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial (down) 4540  
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