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Lotze-Campen, H.; Verburg, P.H.; Popp, A.; Lindner, M.; Verkerk, P.J.; Moiseyev, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Helming, J.; Tabeau, A.; Schulp, C.J.E.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Lavalle, C.; e Silva, F.B.; Walz, A.; Bodirsky, B. |
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Title |
A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
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Volume |
18 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
751-762 |
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Keywords |
Land use change; Integrated modelling; Cross-scale interaction; Nature protection; Impact assessment |
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Abstract |
Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales. |
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1436-3798 |
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TradeM |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5004 |
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Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Biewald, A.; Humpenoeder, F.; Dietrich, J.P.; Stevanovic, M. |
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Title |
Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global and Planetary Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global And Planetary Change |
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Volume |
159 |
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Pages |
1-10 |
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Keywords |
Livestock productivity; Diets; Land use; Deforestation; Carbon emissions; Greenhouse gas mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Climate-Change Mitigation; Food-Demand; Crop; Productivity; Cover Change; Systems; Agriculture; Intensification; Environment; Deforestation |
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Abstract |
Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection. |
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2018-01-25 |
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0921-8181 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5188 |
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Weindl, I.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Muller, C.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenoder, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Schaphoff, S.; Popp, A. |
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Title |
Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices |
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Journal Article |
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2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
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47 |
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121-132 |
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Keywords |
Livestock; Productivity; Dietary changes; Consumptive water use; Water scarcity; Water resources; Climate-Change Mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Global Vegetation; Model; Land-Use; Comprehensive Assessment; Fresh-Water; Systems; Requirements; Irrigation; Carbon |
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Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand-and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshWater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km(3) yr(-1)). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19-36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26-69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies. |
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2018-01-08 |
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0959-3780 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5183 |
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Mitter, H.; Techen, A.-K.; Sinabell, F.; Helming, K.; Kok, K.; Priess, J.A.; Schmid, E.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Holman, I.; Lehtonen, H.; Leip, A.; Le Mouel, C.; Mathijs, E.; Mehdi, B.; Michetti, M.; Mittenzwei, K.; Mora, O.; Oygarden, L.; Reidsma, P.; Schaldach, R.; Schoenhart, M. |
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Title |
A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
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Volume |
252 |
Issue |
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Pages |
Unsp 109701 |
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Keywords |
EUR-Agri-SSP; Consistent storylines; Narrative; Integrated assessment; Social environmental system; Climate change; land-use change; global environmental-change; climate-change; scenario; development; transdisciplinary research; sustainability science; integrated-assessment; future; adaptation; framework |
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Abstract |
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs- to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports intercomparisons of IAAS. |
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2020-02-14 |
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0301-4797 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5222 |
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Milford, A.B.; Le Mouel, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S. |
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Title |
Drivers of meat consumption |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Appetite |
Abbreviated Journal |
Appetite |
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141 |
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Unsp 104313 |
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Keywords |
Meat consumption; Nutrition transition; Climate change mitigation; Cross-country analysis; nutrition transition; food; sustainability; globalization; countries; future; health; income; price |
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Increasing global levels of meat consumption are a threat to the environment and to human health. To identify measures that may change consumption patterns towards more plant-based foods, it is necessary to improve our understanding of the causes behind the demand for meat. In this paper we use data from 137 different countries to identify and assess factors that influence meat consumption at the national level using a cross-country multivariate regression analysis. We specify either total meat or ruminant meat as the dependent variable and we consider a broad range of potential drivers of meat consumption. The combination of explanatory variables we use is new for this type of analysis. In addition, we estimate the relative importance of the different drivers. We find that income per capita followed by rate of urbanisation are the two most important drivers of total meat consumption per capita. Income per capita and natural endowment factors are major drivers of ruminant meat consumption per capita. Other drivers are Western culture, Muslim religion, female labour participation, economic and social globalisation and meat prices. The main identified drivers of meat demand are difficult to influence through direct policy intervention. Thus, acting indirectly on consumers’ preferences and consumption habits (for instance through information, education policy and increased availability of ready-made plant based products) could be of key importance for mitigating the rise of meat consumption per capita all over the world. |
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2020-02-14 |
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0195-6663 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5224 |
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