| Records |
| Author |
Bodirsky, B.L.; Müller, C. |
| Title |
Robust relationship between yields and nitrogen inputs indicates three ways to reduce nitrogen pollution |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
| Volume |
9 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
111005 |
| Keywords |
nitrogen use efficiency; nitrogen; fertilizer; nitrogen pollution; agriculture; yields; mitigation; framework |
| Abstract |
Historic increases in agricultural production came at the expense of substantial environmental burden through nitrogen pollution. Lassaletta et al (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 105011) examine the historic relationship of crop yields and nitrogen fertilizer inputs globally and find a simple and robust relationship of declining nitrogen use efficiency with increasing nitrogen inputs. This general relationship helps to understand the dilemma between increased agricultural production and nitrogen pollution and allows identifying pathways towards more sustainable agricultural production and necessary associated policies. |
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| Language |
English |
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| ISSN |
1748-9326 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4514 |
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| Author |
Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Gerten, D.; Dietrich, J.P.; Bodirsky, B.; Biewald, A.; Popp, A. |
| Title |
Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Water Resource Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Water Resource Research |
| Volume |
49 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
3601-3617 |
| Keywords |
water scarcity; land use model; irrigation efficiency; trade liberalization; livestock consumption; modeling; land cover change; water budgets |
| Abstract |
An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0043-1397 |
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Article |
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TradeM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4502 |
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| Author |
Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
| Title |
Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
PLoS One |
Abbreviated Journal |
PLoS One |
| Volume |
10 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
e0139201 |
| Keywords |
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| Abstract |
Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. |
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| ISSN |
1932-6203 |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4997 |
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| Author |
Humpenöder, F.; Popp, A.; Stevanovic, M.; Müller, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Bonsch, M.; Dietrich, J.P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Weindl, I.; Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S. |
| Title |
Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Science and Technology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ Sci Technol |
| Volume |
49 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
6731-6739 |
| Keywords |
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| Abstract |
Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling. |
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| ISSN |
0013-936x |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4998 |
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| Author |
Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Otto, I.; Brinckmann, N.; Bodirsky, B.; Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Schellnhuber, H.J. |
| Title |
The Impact of Climate Change on Costs of Food and People Exposed to Hunger at Subnational Scale |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
PIK Report |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
128 |
Issue |
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Pages |
73 |
| Keywords |
ftnotmacsur |
| Abstract |
Climate change and socioeconomic developments will have a decisive impact on people exposed to hunger. This study analyses climate change impacts on agriculture and potential implications for the occurrence of hunger under different socioeconomic scenarios for 2030, focusing on the world regions most affected by poverty today: the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a spatially explicit, agroeconomic land-use model to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change. The aims of our study are to provide spatially explicit projections of climate change impacts on Costs of Food, and to combine them with spatially explicit hunger projections for the year 2030, both under a poverty, as well as a prosperity scenario. Our model results indicate that while average yields decrease with climate change in all focus regions, the impact on the Costs of Food is very diverse. Costs of Food increase most in the Middle East and North Africa, where available agricultural land is already fully utilized and options to import food are limited. The increase is least in Sub-Saharan Africa, since production there can be shifted to areas which are only marginally affected by climate change and imports from other regions increase. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa can partly adapt to climate change, in our model, by modifying trade and expanding agricultural land. In the Middle East and North Africa, almost the entire population is affected by increasing Costs of Food, but the share of people vulnerable to hunger is relatively low, due to relatively strong economic development in these projections. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Vulnerability to Hunger will persist, but increases in Costs of Food are moderate. While in South Asia a high share of the population suffers from increases in Costs of Food and is exposed to hunger, only a negligible number of people will be exposed at extreme levels. Independent of the region, the impacts of climate change are less severe in a richer and more globalized world. Adverse climate impacts on the Costs of Food could be moderated by promoting technological progress in agriculture. Improving market access would be advantageous for farmers, providing the opportunity to profitably increase production in the Middle East and North Africa as well as in South Asia, but may lead to increasing Costs of Food for consumers. In the long-term perspective until 2080, the consequences of climate change will become even more severe: while in 2030 56% of the global population may face increasing Costs of Food in a poor and fragmented world, in 2080 the proportion will rise to 73%. |
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Place of Publication |
Potsdam |
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Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung |
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| Notes |
TradeM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5000 |
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