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| Author |
Brilli, L.; Ferrise, R.; Dibari, C.; Bindi, M.; Bellocchi, G. |
Title  |
Needs on model improvement |
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Report |
| Year |
2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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XC1.1-D |
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The need to answer new scientific questions can be satisfied by an increased knowledge of physiological mechanisms which, in turn, can be used for improving the accuracy of simulations of process-based models. In this context, this report highlights areas that need to be further improved to facilitate the operational use of simulation models. It describes missing approaches within simulation models which, if implemented, would likely improve the representation of the dynamics of processes underlying different compartments of crop and grassland systems (e.g. plant growth and development, yield production, GHG emissions), as well as of the livestock production systems. The following rationale has been used in the organization of this report. We first briefly introduced the need to improve the reliability of existing models. Then, we indicated climate change and its influence on the global carbon balance as the main issue to be addressed by existing crop and grassland (section 2), and livestock (section 3) models. In section 2, among the major aspects that if implemented may reduce the uncertainty inherent to model outputs, we suggested: i) quantifying the effects of climate extremes on biological systems; ii) modelling of multi-species sward; iii) coupling of pest and disease sub-models; iv) improvement of the carry-over effect. In section 3, as the most important aspects to consider in livestock models we indicated: i) impacts and dynamics of pathogens and disease; ii) heat stress effects on livestock; iii) effects on grassland productivity and nutritional values; iv) improvement of GHG emissions dynamics. In Section 4, remarks are made concerning the need to implement the suggested aspects into the existing models. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4938 |
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Bellocchi, G.; Rivington, M.; Acutis, M. |
| Title |
Protocol for model evaluation |
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| Year |
2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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D-L2.2/D |
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This deliverable focuses on the development of methods for model evaluation in order to have unambiguous indications derived from the use of several evaluation metrics. The information about model quality is aggregated into a single indicator using a fuzzy expert system that can be applied to a wide range of model estimates where suitable test data are available. This is a cross-cutting activity between CropM (C1.4) and LiveM (L2.2). No Label |
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2229 |
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Ma, S.; Lardy, R.; Graux, A.-I.; Ben Touhami, H.; Klumpp, K.; Martin, R.; Bellocchi, G. |
| Title |
Regional-scale analysis of carbon and water cycles on managed grassland systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
72 |
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356-371 |
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carbon flux; eddy flux measurements; model evaluation; pasture simulation model (pasim); water balance; pasture simulation-model; nitrous-oxide emissions; primary productivity npp; comparing global-models; net ecosystem exchange; greenhouse-gas balance; climate-change; agricultural systems; co2 exchange; european grasslands |
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Predicting regional and global carbon (C) and water dynamics on grasslands has become of major interest, as grasslands are one of the most widespread vegetation types worldwide, providing a number of ecosystem services (such as forage production and C storage). The present study is a contribution to a regional-scale analysis of the C and water cycles on managed grasslands. The mechanistic biogeochemical model PaSim (Pasture Simulation model) was evaluated at 12 grassland sites in Europe. A new parameterization was obtained on a common set of eco-physiological parameters, which represented an improvement of previous parameterization schemes (essentially obtained via calibration at specific sites). We found that C and water fluxes estimated with the parameter set are in good agreement with observations. The model with the new parameters estimated that European grassland are a sink of C with 213 g C m(-2) yr(-1), which is close to the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE) flux of the studied sites (185 g C m(-2) yr(-1) on average). The estimated yearly average gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RECO) for all of the study sites are 1220 and 1006 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively, in agreement with observed average GPP (1230 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) and RECO (1046 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). For both variables aggregated on a weekly basis, the root mean square error (RMSE) was similar to 5-16 g C week(-1) across the study sites, while the goodness of fit (R-2) was similar to 0.4-0.9. For evapotranspiration (ET), the average value of simulated ET (415 mmyr(-1)) for all sites and years is close to the average value of the observed ET (451 mm yr(-1)) by flux towers (on a weekly basis, RMSE similar to 2-8 mm week(-1); R-2 = 0.3-0.9). However, further model development is needed to better represent soil water dynamics under dry conditions and soil temperature in winter. A quantification of the uncertainties introduced by spatially generalized parameter values in C and water exchange estimates is also necessary. In addition, some uncertainties in the input management data call for the need to improve the quality of the observational system. |
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2015-10-09 |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4695 |
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| Author |
Bellocchi, G.; Ma, S. |
| Title |
Results of uncalibrated grassland model runs |
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Report |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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3 |
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Pages |
D-L2.3 |
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This deliverable focuses on the some illustrative results obtained with the grassland models selected (D-L2.1.1) to simulate biomass and flux data from grassland sites in Europe and peri-Mediterranean regions (D-L2.1.1 and D-L2.1.2). This is a blind exercise, carried out without model calibration. The complete set of results will include simulations from calibrated models. The results shown are illustrative of the methodology adopted for grassland model intercomparison in MACSUR. The insights gained from this ongoing study are relevant for some crop and vegetation models, which in some cases proved comparable to grassland-specific models to simulate biomass data from managed grasslands. The results reported here cannot be considered conclusive. Additional results will be published as they become available together with calibration results, as well as the comprehensive evaluation of models with fuzzy logic-based indicators. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2234 |
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Pulina, A.; Bellocchi, G.; Seddaiu, G.; Roggero, P.P. |
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Scenario analysis of alternative management options on the forage production and greenhouse gas emissions in Mediterranean grasslands |
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Conference Article |
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2016 |
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116 |
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263-266 |
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LiveM; MACSUR_ACK |
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TI @ martin.koechy @ |
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2940 |
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