|
Records |
Links |
|
Author |
Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R.P.; Lobell, D.B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B.A.; Ottman, M.J.; Wall, G.W.; White, J.W.; Reynolds, M.P.; Alderman, P.D.; Prasad, P.V.V.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L.A.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C.D.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A.C.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. |
|
|
Title |
Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
|
|
Volume |
5 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
143-147 |
|
|
Keywords |
climate-change; spring wheat; dryland wheat; yield; growth; drought; heat; CO2; agriculture; adaptation |
|
|
Abstract |
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1758-678x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4550 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
|
|
Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
|
|
Volume |
72 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
287-303 |
|
|
Keywords |
uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat |
|
|
Abstract |
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1364-8152 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4521 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Challinor, A.; Martre, P.; Asseng, S.; Thornton, P.; Ewert, F. |
|
|
Title |
Making the most of climate impacts ensembles |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
|
|
Volume |
4 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
77-80 |
|
|
Keywords |
uncertainty; model; adaptation |
|
|
Abstract |
Increasing use of regionally and globally oriented impacts studies, coordinated across international modelling groups, promises to bring about a new era in climate impacts research. Coordinated cycles of model improvement and projection are needed to make the most of this potential. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1758-678x 1758-6798 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Commentary |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4516 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Wallach, D.; Coucheney, E.; Sosa, C.; Lewan, E.; Eckersten, H.; Specka, X.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Nendel, C.; Grosz, B.; Dechow, R.; Kuhnert, M.; Yeluripati, J.; Kiese, R.; Haas, E.; Klatt, S.; Teixeira, E.; Bindi, M.; Trombi, G.; Moriondo, M.; Doro, L.; Roggero, P.P.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, E.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Tao, F.; Rötter, R.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Weihermüller, L.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F. |
|
|
Title |
Effects of soil and climate input data aggregation on modelling regional crop yields |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
|
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
MACSUR Science Conference |
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
MACSUR Science Conference, 2015-04-08 to 2015-04-10, Reading, United Kingdom |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5037 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Van Bussel, L.G.J.; Enders, A.; Specka, X.; Sosa, C.; Yeluripati, J.; Tao, F.; Constantin, J.; Teixeira, E.; Grosz, B.; Doro, L.; Zhao, Z.; Nendel, C.; Kiese, R.; Raynal, H.; Eckersten, H.; Haas, E.; Wang, E.; Kuhnert, M.; Lewan, E.; Bach, M.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Rötter, R.; Roggero, P.P.; Wallach, D.; Krauss, G.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F. |
|
|
Title |
Influence of climate input data aggregation on simulated yield |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
|
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
ESA Congress |
|
|
Series Volume |
13 Debrecen, |
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
ESA Congress, 2014-08-25 to 2014-08-29, Debrecen, 13: |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5039 |
|
Permanent link to this record |