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Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Müller, C.; Frieler, K.; Konzmann, M.; Gerten, D.; Glotter, M.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Best, N.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B.M.; Folberth, C.; Foster, I.; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Olin, S.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Satoh, Y.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D. |
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Title |
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change |
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2013 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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111 |
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9 |
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3239-3244 |
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Agricultural Irrigation/economics/*methods; Agriculture/economics/*methods; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Forecasting; *Models, Theoretical; Water Supply/*statistics & numerical data; adaptation; agriculture; hydrology; uncertainty |
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Abstract |
We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4790 |
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Palosuo, T.; Rötter, P.; Lehtonen, H.; Virkajärvi, P.; Salo, T. |
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Title |
How to assess climate change impacts on farmers’ crop yields? |
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2013 |
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327-334 |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30, Potsdam |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2706 |
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Nendel, C.; Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Asseng, S.; Ruane, A.C.; Banse, M.; Tiffin, R.; Brouwer, F.; Sinabell, F.; Scollan, N.; Meijs, J.; Angulo, C.; Antle, J.M.; Baigorria, G.; Basso, B.; Bindi, M.; Boote, K.J.; Gaiser, T.; Janssen, S.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nelson, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Porter, C.H.; Porter, J.R.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.; Stewart, D.; Thorburn, P.; Trnka, M.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Verhagen, J.; Wallach, D.; Winter, J.M. |
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Addressing challenges and uncertainties for, the use of agro-ecosystem models to, assess climate change impact and food security across scales |
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2013 |
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Climate Change and Regional Responses Conference, Dresden, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-27 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2679 |
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Müller, C.; Stehfest, E.; van Minnen, J.; Strengers, B.; von, B.W.; Beusen, A.; Schaphoff, S.; Kram, T.; Lucht, W. |
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Title |
Reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance under climate and land-use change |
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2013 |
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European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2013, 2013-04-07 to 2013-04-12 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2672 |
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Müller, C.; Elliott, J. |
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The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison – Approaches, insights and caveats of modeling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale |
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2013 |
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FAO expert consultation on climate change and trade, Rome, Italy, 2013-11-05 to 2013-11-06 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2670 |
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