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| Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
| Title |
Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting |
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Report |
Year  |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
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Pages |
Sp3-7 |
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| Abstract |
Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2224 |
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| Author |
Bojar, W. |
| Title |
Short information on progress in MACSUR |
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Report |
| Year |
2014 |
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Format UTP |
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68 C6 - |
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63 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2075 |
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Bojar, W.; Dzieza, G.; Sikora, M.; Spiewak, J.; Wyszkowska, Z.; Januszewski, A.; Zóltowski, M. |
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Wybrane metody ograniczania dzialania czynników ryzyka w rolnictwie w swietle wspólczesnych wyzwan (Selected methods of limiting of risk factors in agriculture in a view of contemporary challenges) Y ograniczania dzialania czynników ryzyka w rolnictwie |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Roczniki naukowe ekonomii rolnictwa i rozwoju obszarów wiejskich |
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101(4) |
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7-18 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2076 |
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Barbier-Brygoo, H.; Chilliard, Y.; Durand, J.-L.; Elmayan, T.; Goldringer, I.; Porter, J.R. |
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Rapport du groupe de traveil sur la Propriétè Intellectuelle dans le végétal, du conseil scientifique nationale de l’INRA |
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Report |
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2014 |
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Rapport de L’INRA Conseil Scientifique |
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43 |
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CropM |
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Paris, France |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2074 |
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Sánchez, B.; Rasmussen, A.; Porter, J.R. |
| Title |
Temperatures and the growth and development of maize and rice: a review |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
20 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
408-417 |
| Keywords |
Climate Change; Oryza/*growth & development; Temperature; Zea mays/*growth & development; cardinal temperatures; climatic change impacts; development; growth; lethal temperatures; maize; rice |
| Abstract |
Because of global land surface warming, extreme temperature events are expected to occur more often and more intensely, affecting the growth and development of the major cereal crops in several ways, thus affecting the production component of food security. In this study, we have identified rice and maize crop responses to temperature in different, but consistent, phenological phases and development stages. A literature review and data compilation of around 140 scientific articles have determined the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice and maize, complementing an earlier study on wheat. Lethal temperatures and cardinal temperatures, together with error estimates, have been identified for phenological phases and development stages. Following the methodology of previous work, we have collected and statistically analysed temperature thresholds of the three crops for the key physiological processes such as leaf initiation, shoot growth and root growth and for the most susceptible phenological phases such as sowing to emergence, anthesis and grain filling. Our summary shows that cardinal temperatures are conservative between studies and are seemingly well defined in all three crops. Anthesis and ripening are the most sensitive temperature stages in rice as well as in wheat and maize. We call for further experimental studies of the effects of transgressing threshold temperatures so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. |
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English |
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1354-1013 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4693 |
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