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Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands |
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Journal Article |
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Year  |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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Volume |
10 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
045004 |
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Keywords |
climate change adaptation; scenario; farm diversity; crop simulation; bio-economic farm modelling; european-union; crop yields; agriculture; responses; models; wheat; variability; improvement; strategies; scenarios |
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Abstract |
Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semiquantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. |
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2016-10-31 |
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ISSN |
1748-9326 |
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Article |
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Notes |
CropM |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4800 |
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Author |
Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, M.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security INTRODUCTION |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
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Pages |
3-5 |
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Keywords |
Crop production; Climate change impact and adaptation assessments; Upscaling; Model ensembles |
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Abstract |
Process-based crop models that synthesise the latest scientific understanding of biophysical processes are currently the primary scientific tools available to assess potential impacts of climate change on crop production. Important obstacles are still present, however, and must be overcome for improving crop modelling application in integrated assessments of risk, of sustainability and of crop-production resilience in the face of climate change (e.g. uncertainty analysis, model integration, etc.). The research networks MACSUR and AGMIP organised the CropM International Symposium and Workshop in Oslo, on 10-12 February 2014, and present this CR Special, discussing the state-of-the-art-as well as future perspectives-of crop modelling applications in climate change risk assessment, including the challenges of integrated assessments for the agricultural sector. |
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2016-10-31 |
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ISSN |
0936-577x |
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Editorial Material |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4785 |
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Author |
Cortignani, R.; Dono, G. |
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Title |
Simulation of the impact of greening measures in an agricultural area of the southern Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Land Use Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Land Use Policy |
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48 |
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Pages |
525-533 |
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Keywords |
agricultural policy; supply analysis; mathematical programming; maximum-entropy; level; models |
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Abstract |
Together, sustainable management of natural resources and climate action form one of the three objectives of the 2014-2020 Common Agricultural Policy. This objective is being addressed by replacing the existing direct payments under Pillar 1 with a basic payment, combined with an additional payment conditional on farmers undertaking agricultural practices beneficial for the climate and the environment, a policy referred to as greening. In this study, the impact of greening was assessed using a hybrid model calibrated using positive mathematical programming. The model describes the macro-types of farm production in a Mediterranean agricultural area. The results show that greening was not beneficial throughout the study area and only some farm types have been particularly affected. However, greening appears to have a positive impact on curtailing the use of chemicals, particularly nitrogen, and on crop diversity. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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0264-8377 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4746 |
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Author |
Zhao, G.; Hoffmann, H.; van Bussel, L.G.J.; Enders, A.; Specka, X.; Sosa, C.; Yeluripati, J.; Tao, F.L.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Teixeira, E.; Grosz, B.; Doro, L.; Zhao, Z.G.; Nendel, C.; Kiese, R.; Eckersten, H.; Haas, E.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Wang, E.; Kuhnert, M.; Trombi, G.; Moriondo, M.; Bindi, M.; Lewan, E.; Bach, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Rotter, R.; Roggero, P.P.; Wallach, D.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Krauss, G.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
141-157 |
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Keywords |
crop model; model comparison; spatial resolution; data aggregation; spatial heterogeneity; scaling; climate-change scenarios; sub-saharan africa; winter-wheat; spatial-resolution; yield response; input data; systems simulation; large-scale; soil data; part i |
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We assessed the weather data aggregation effect (DAE) on the simulation of cropping systems for different crops, response variables, and production conditions. Using 13 process-based crop models and the ensemble mean, we simulated 30 yr continuous cropping systems for 2 crops (winter wheat and silage maize) under 3 production conditions for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The DAE was evaluated for 5 weather data resolutions (i.e. 1, 10, 25, 50, and 100 km) for 3 response variables including yield, growing season evapotranspiration, and water use efficiency. Five metrics, viz. the spatial bias (Delta), average absolute deviation (AAD), relative AAD, root mean squared error (RMSE), and relative RMSE, were used to evaluate the DAE on both the input weather data and simulated results. For weather data, we found that data aggregation narrowed the spatial variability but widened the., especially across mountainous areas. The DAE on loss of spatial heterogeneity and hotspots was stronger than on the average changes over the region. The DAE increased when coarsening the spatial resolution of the input weather data. The DAE varied considerably across different models, but changed only slightly for different production conditions and crops. We conclude that if spatially detailed information is essential for local management decision, higher resolution is desirable to adequately capture the spatial variability for heterogeneous regions. The required resolution depends on the choice of the model as well as the environmental condition of the study area. |
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ISSN |
0936-577x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4754 |
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Author |
Zhao, G.; Siebert, S.; Enders, A.; Rezaei, E.E.; Yan, C.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Demand for multi-scale weather data for regional crop modeling |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
200 |
Issue |
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Pages |
156-171 |
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Keywords |
multi-scale; spatial heterogeneity; spatial resolution; crop model; climate variability; climate-change scenarios; integrated assessment; large-scale; phenological development; agricultural systems; spatial-resolution; data aggregation; european-union; winter-wheat; input data |
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Abstract |
A spatial resolution needs to be determined prior to using models to simulate crop yields at a regional scale, but a dilemma exists in compromising between different demands. A fine spatial resolution demands extensive computation load for input data assembly, model runs, and output analysis. A coarse spatial resolution could result in loss of spatial detail in variability. This paper studied the impact of spatial resolution, data aggregation and spatial heterogeneity of weather data on simulations of crop yields, thus providing guidelines for choosing a proper spatial resolution for simulations of crop yields at regional scale. Using a process-based crop model SIMPLACE (LINTUL2) and daily weather data at 1 km resolution we simulated a continuous rainfed winter wheat cropping system at the national scale of Germany. Then we aggregated the weather data to four resolutions from 10 to 100 km, repeated the simulation, compared them with the 1 km results, and correlated the difference with the intra-pixel heterogeneity quantified by an ensemble of four semivariogram models. Aggregation of weather data had small effects over regions with a flat terrain located in northern Germany, but large effects over southern regions with a complex topography. The spatial distribution of yield bias at different spatial resolutions was consistent with the intra-pixel spatial heterogeneity of the terrain and a log-log linear relationship between them was established. By using this relationship we demonstrated the way to optimize the model resolution to minimize both the number of simulation runs and the expected loss of spatial detail in variability due to aggregation effects. We concluded that a high spatial resolution is desired for regions with high spatial environmental heterogeneity, and vice versa. This calls for the development of multi-scale approaches in regional and global crop modeling. The obtained results require substantiation for other production situations, crops, output variables and for different crop models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4753 |
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