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| Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
| Title |
Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting |
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Report |
Year  |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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Pages |
Sp3-7 |
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| Abstract |
Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2224 |
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| Author |
Bojar, W. |
| Title |
Short information on progress in MACSUR |
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Report |
| Year |
2014 |
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Format UTP |
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68 C6 - |
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63 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2075 |
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Bojar, W.; Dzieza, G.; Sikora, M.; Spiewak, J.; Wyszkowska, Z.; Januszewski, A.; Zóltowski, M. |
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Wybrane metody ograniczania dzialania czynników ryzyka w rolnictwie w swietle wspólczesnych wyzwan (Selected methods of limiting of risk factors in agriculture in a view of contemporary challenges) Y ograniczania dzialania czynników ryzyka w rolnictwie |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Roczniki naukowe ekonomii rolnictwa i rozwoju obszarów wiejskich |
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101(4) |
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7-18 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2076 |
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Żarski, J.; Dudek, S.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R.; Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, W. |
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Agroklimatologiczna ocena opadów atmosferycznych okresu wegetacyjnego w rejonie Bydgoszczy (Agro-climatological assessment of the growing season rainfall in the Bydgoszcz region) |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich (Infrastructure and Ecology of Rural Areas) |
Abbreviated Journal |
Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich (Infrastructure and Ecology of Rural Areas) |
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Ii |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
643-656 |
| Keywords |
rainfall; growing season; Bydgoszcz region; weather-yield model |
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The aim of the research was an agro-climatologic assessment of the amount of rainfall on a local scale, mainly aimed to identify trends in their changes and a possible rise in their variability over time. In the studies also we wanted to demonstrate the impact of the amount of rainfall in the region of Bydgoszcz on the yield of some crops. Material for the study consists of rainfall measurements, carried out in a stand- ard way in the years 1981-2010 at the Research Station of the University of Technology and Life Sciences in Bydgoszcz. Station is located in the village of Mochle, located approximately 20 km from the city centre (φ=53013’ N, λ=17051’E, h=98.5 m above sea level) in sparsely urbanized and industrialized area. We also used data of the yield of selected crops (potato, barley, corn for grain, legumes), from the production in the region of Kujawy and Pomorze as well as from our own experimental field. It has been shown that the average long-term rainfall during the growing season allows for classifying Bydgoszcz region as the area with the lowest rainfall in Poland. Analyzed rainfalls were characterized by a very high variability in time, resulting in climatic risk of plant growing. The largest temporal variability related to August. However, there was no extension of the time variability of rainfall totals in the period 1996-2010, as compared to the period 1981-1995. The sole significant growth trend during the period 1981-2010 was found in May. It appeared a tendency to a decline in summer rainfall totals (VI-VIII) in the annual rainfall total, which is consistent with the IPCC projections. Rainfall totals had highly signi cant impact on yields of selected crops. The highest correlation coefficients were found in relations crop-rainfall in the months of increased water needs of plants. Better correlations rainfall-crop were found using data from the production scale as compared with the scale of experimental field. |
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Polish |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4643 |
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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Sławiński, C.; Baranowski, P.; Żarski, W. |
| Title |
Impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Acta Agrophysica |
Abbreviated Journal |
Acta Agrophysica |
| Volume |
21 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
415-431 |
| Keywords |
agricultural economics; agriculture; climate change; crop production; integrating assessments |
| Abstract |
The paper presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Lubelskie Regions, based on statistical databases and literature review. Some specific features of the regions, with special consideration for the predicted extreme climate changes, are also included. Next, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, and the Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Creating an appropriate method of forecasting long series of ten days without precipitation was necessary to find the desired dependencies. Third, some efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecast agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the yield-precipitation relations obtained and on the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices of farmland and produce. |
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English |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4619 |
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