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Author Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Gerten, D.; Dietrich, J.P.; Bodirsky, B.; Biewald, A.; Popp, A.
Title Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand Type Journal Article
Year (up) 2013 Publication Water Resource Research Abbreviated Journal Water Resource Research
Volume 49 Issue 6 Pages 3601-3617
Keywords water scarcity; land use model; irrigation efficiency; trade liberalization; livestock consumption; modeling; land cover change; water budgets
Abstract An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
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Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0043-1397 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4502
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Author Scholten, M.C.T.
Title Research and innovation for a competitive and sustainable animal production sector in a climate changing Europe: linking up MACSUR with Animal Task Force Type Journal Article
Year (up) 2015 Publication Advances in Animal Biosciences Abbreviated Journal Advances in Animal Biosciences
Volume 6 Issue 01 Pages 1-2
Keywords animal health; livestock; climate smart production; integration
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2040-4700 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4717
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Author Weindl, I.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C.; Havlík, P.; Herrero, M.; Schmitz, C.; Rolinski, S.
Title Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture Type Journal Article
Year (up) 2015 Publication Environmental Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Environ. Res. Lett.
Volume 10 Issue 9 Pages 094021
Keywords livestock; climate impacts; land use modeling; adaptation costs; production systems; greenhouse-gas emissions; global change; management implications; developing-countries; crop productivity; change mitigation; food security; model; impacts; carbon
Abstract Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource-and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.
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ISSN 1748-9326 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4718
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Author Katajajuuri, J.-M.; Pulkkinen, H.; Hietala, S.; Järvenranta, K.; Virkajärvi, P.; Nousiainen, J.I.; Huuskonen, A.
Title A holistic, dynamic model to quantify and mitigate the environmental impacts of cattle farming Type Journal Article
Year (up) 2015 Publication Advances in Animal Biosciences Abbreviated Journal Advances in Animal Biosciences
Volume 6 Issue 01 Pages 35-36
Keywords GHG mitigation; LCA; livestock; dynamic farm model
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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ISSN 2040-4700 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4680
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Author Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Heinke, J.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.
Title Pasture harvest, carbon sequestration and feeding potentials under different grazing intensities Type Journal Article
Year (up) 2015 Publication Advances in Animal Biosciences Abbreviated Journal Advances in Animal Biosciences
Volume 6 Issue 01 Pages 43-45
Keywords global dynamic vegetation model; LPJmL; grasslands; livestock production
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Notes CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4541
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