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Bassu, S., Brisson, N., Durand, J. - L., Boote, K., Lizaso, J., Jones, J. W., et al. (2014). How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors. Glob. Chang. Biol., 20(7), 2301–2320.
Abstract: Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.
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Moraru, P. I., Rusu, T., Guș, P., Bogdan, I., & Pop, A. I. (2015). The role of minimum tillage in protecting environmental resources of the Transylvanian Plain, Romania. Romanian Agricultural Research, 32, 127–135.
Abstract: Conservative tillage systems tested in the hilly area of the Transylvanian Plain (Romania), confirms the possibility of improving the biological, physical, chemical and technologizcal properties of the soil. Conservative components include minimum tillage systems and surface incorporation of crop residues. The minimum tillage soil systems with paraplow, chisel or rotary harrow are polyvalent alternatives for basic preparation, germination bed preparation and sowing, for fields and crops with moderate loose requirements being optimized technologies for: soil natural fertility activation and rationalization, reduction of erosion, increasing the accumulation capacity for water and realization of sowing in the optimal period. The minimum tillage systems ensure an adequate aerial-hydrical regime for the biological activity intensity and for the nutrients solubility equilibrium. The vegetal material remaining at the soil surface or superficially incorporated has its contribution to intensifying the biological activity, being an important resource of organic matter. Humus content increases by 0.41%. The minimum tillage systems rebuild the soil structure (hydrostable macroagregate content increases up to 2.2% to 5.2%), improving the global drainage of soil which allows a rapid infiltration of water in soil. Water reserve, accumulated in the 0-50 cm depth is with 1-32 m(3) ha(-1) higher in the minimum tillage variants. The result is a more productive soil, better protected against wind and water erosion and needing less fuel for preparing the germination bed.
Keywords: minimum tillage; soil conservation; crop production; winter-wheat; systems; maize; conservation; temperature; yield; l.
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Eyshi Rezaei, E., Siebert, S., & Ewert, F. (2015). Impact of data resolution on heat and drought stress simulated for winter wheat in Germany. European Journal of Agronomy, 65, 69–82.
Abstract: Heat and drought stress can reduce crop yields considerably which is increasingly assessed with crop models for larger areas. Applying these models originally developed for the field scale at large spatial extent typically implies the use of input data with coarse resolution. Little is known about the effect of data resolution on the simulated impact of extreme events like heat and drought on crops. Hence, in this study the effect of input and output data aggregation on simulated heat and drought stress and their impact on yield of winter wheat is systematically analyzed. The crop model SIMPLACE was applied for the period 1980-2011 across Germany at a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Weather and soil input data and model output data were then aggregated to 10 km x 10 km, 25 km x 25 km, 50 km x 50 km and 100 km x 100 km resolution to analyze the aggregation effect on heat and drought stress and crop yield. We found that aggregation of model input and output data barely influenced the mean and median of heat and drought stress reduction factors and crop yields simulated across Germany. However, data aggregation resulted in less spatial variability of model results and a reduced severity of simulated stress events, particularly for regions with high heterogeneity in weather and soil conditions. Comparisons of simulations at coarse resolution with those at high resolution showed distinct patterns of positive and negative deviations which compensated each other so that aggregation effects for large regions were small for mean or median yields. Therefore, modelling at a resolution of 100 km x 100 km was sufficient to determine mean wheat yield as affected by heat and drought stress for Germany. Further research is required to clarify whether the results can be generalized across crop models differing in structure and detail. Attention should also be given to better understand the effect of data resolution on interactions between heat and drought impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Eyshi Rezaei, E., Webber, H., Gaiser, T., Naab, J., & Ewert, F. (2015). Heat stress in cereals: Mechanisms and modelling. European Journal of Agronomy, 64, 98–113.
Abstract: Increased climate variability and higher mean temperatures are expected across many world regions, both of which will contribute to more frequent extreme high temperatures events. Empirical evidence increasingly shows that short episodes of high temperature experienced around flowering can have large negative impacts on cereal grain yields, a phenomenon increasingly referred to as heat stress. Crop models are currently the best tools available to investigate how crops will grow under future climatic conditions, though the need to include heat stress effects has been recognized only relatively recently. We reviewed literature on both how key crop physiological processes and the observed yields under production conditions are impacted by high temperatures occurring particularly in the flowering and grain filling phases for wheat, maize and rice. This state of the art in crop response to heat stress was then contrasted with generic approaches to simulate the impacts of high temperatures in crop growth models. We found that the observed impacts of heat stress on crop yield are the end result of the integration of many processes, not all of which will be affected by a “high temperature” regime. This complexity confirms an important role for crop models in systematizing the effects of high temperatures on many processes under a range of environments and realizations of crop phenology. Four generic approaches to simulate high temperature impacts on yield were identified: (1) empirical reduction of final yield, (2) empirical reduction in daily increment in harvest index, (3) empirical reduction in grain number, and (4) semi-deterministic models of sink and source limitation. Consideration of canopy temperature is suggested as a promising approach to concurrently account for heat and drought stress, which are likely to occur simultaneously. Improving crop models’ response to high temperature impacts on cereal yields will require experimental data representative of field production and should be designed to connect what is already known about physiological responses and observed yield impacts. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: high temperature; heat stress; cereal yield; climate change impact; crop modelling; high-temperature stress; tropical maize hybrids; triticum-aestivum l; high-yielding rice; induced spikelet sterility; stem reserve mobilization; climate-change impacts; oryza-sativa l.; grain-yield; kernel set
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Vitali, A., Felici, A., Esposito, S., Bernabucci, U., Bertocchi, L., Maresca, C., et al. (2015). The effect of heat waves on dairy cow mortality. J. Dairy Sci., 98(7), 4572–4579.
Abstract: This study investigated the mortality of dairy cows during heat waves. Mortality data (46,610 cases) referred to dairy cows older than 24 mo that died on a farm from all causes from May 1 to September 30 during a 6-yr period (2002-2007). Weather data were obtained from 12 weather stations located in different areas of Italy. Heat waves were defined for each weather station as a period of at least 3 consecutive days, from May 1 to September 30 (2002-2007), when the daily maximum temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference distribution (1971-2000). Summer days were classified as days in heat wave (HW) or not in heat wave (nHW). Days in HW were numbered to evaluate the relationship between mortality and length of the wave. Finally, the first 3 nHW days after the end of a heat wave were also considered to account for potential prolonged effects. The mortality risk was evaluated using a case-crossover design. A conditional logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for mortality recorded in HW compared with that recorded in nHW days pooled and stratified by duration of exposure, age of cows, and month of occurrence. Dairy cows mortality was greater during HW compared with nHW days. Furthermore, compared with nHW days, the risk of mortality continued to be higher during the 3 d after the end of HW. Mortality increased with the length of the HW. Considering deaths stratified by age, cows up to 28 mo were not affected by HW, whereas all the other age categories of older cows (29-60, 61-96, and >96 mo) showed a greater mortality when exposed to HW. The risk of death during HW was higher in early summer months. In particular, the highest risk of mortality was observed during June HW. Present results strongly support the implementation of adaptation strategies which may limit heat stress-related impairment of animal welfare and economic losses in dairy cow farm during HW.
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