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Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Wolf, J.; Britz, W.; Vries, W. de; Gaiser, T.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Climate change impacts on European crop yields: Do we need to consider nitrogen limitation |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume  |
71 |
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Pages |
123-134 |
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Keywords |
Climate impact assessment; Nitrogen limitation; European crop yields; SIMPLACE Crop modelling framework; model calibration; winter-wheat; scale; co2; productivity; agriculture; strategies; scenarios; systems; growth |
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Abstract |
Global climate impact studies with crop models suggest that including nitrogen and water limitation causes greater negative climate change impacts on actual yields compared to water-limitation only. We simulated water limited and nitrogen water limited yields across the EU-27 to 2050 for six key crops with the SIMPLACE<LINTUL5, DRUNIR, HEAT> model to assess how important consideration of nitrogen limitation is in climate impact studies for European cropping systems. We further investigated how crop nitrogen use may change under future climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that inclusion of nitrogen limitation hardly changed crop yield response to climate for the spring-sown crops considered (grain maize, potato, and sugar beet). However, for winter-sown crops (winter barley, winter rapeseed and winter wheat), simulated impacts to 2050 were more negative when nitrogen limitation was considered, especially with high levels of water stress. Future nitrogen use rates are likely to decrease due to climate change for spring-sown crops, largely in parallel with their yields. These results imply that climate change impact studies for winter-sown crops should consider N-fertilization. Specification of future N fertilization rates is a methodological challenge that is likely to need integrated assessment models to address. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4726 |
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Kollas, C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Manevski, K.; Müller, C.; Palosuo, T.; Armas-Herrera, C.M.; Beaudoin, N.; Bindi, M.; Charfeddine, M.; Conradt, T.; Constantin, J.; Eitzinger, J.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Gaiser, T.; Cortazar-Atauri, I.G. de; Giglio, L.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hoffmann, M.P.; Launay, M.; Manderscheid, R.; Mary, B.; Mirschel, W.; Moriondo, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Öztürk, I.; Pacholski, A.; Ripoche-Wachter, D.; Roggero, P.P.; Roncossek, S.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruget, F.; Sharif, B.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Waha, K.; Wegehenkel, M.; Weigel, H.-J.; Wu, L. |
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Title |
Crop rotation modelling—A European model intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
70 |
Issue |
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Pages |
98-111 |
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Keywords |
Model ensemble; Crop simulation models; Catch crop; Intermediate crop; Treatment; Multi-year; long-term experiment; climate-change; wheat production; n-fertilization; systems simulation; nitrogen dynamics; tillage intensity; winter-wheat; soil carbon; growth |
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Abstract |
• First model inter-comparison on crop rotations. • Continuous simulation of multi-year crop rotations yields outperformed single-year simulation. • Low accuracy of yield predictions in less commonly modelled crops such as potato, radish, grass vegetation. • Multi-model mean prediction was found to minimise the likely error arising from single-model predictions. • The representation of intermediate crops and carry-over effects in the models require further research efforts.
Diversification of crop rotations is considered an option to increase the resilience of European crop production under climate change. So far, however, many crop simulation studies have focused on predicting single crops in separate one-year simulations. Here, we compared the capability of fifteen crop growth simulation models to predict yields in crop rotations at five sites across Europe under minimal calibration. Crop rotations encompassed 301 seasons of ten crop types common to European agriculture and a diverse set of treatments (irrigation, fertilisation, CO2 concentration, soil types, tillage, residues, intermediate or catch crops). We found that the continuous simulation of multi-year crop rotations yielded results of slightly higher quality compared to the simulation of single years and single crops. Intermediate crops (oilseed radish and grass vegetation) were simulated less accurately than main crops (cereals). The majority of models performed better for the treatments of increased CO2 and nitrogen fertilisation than for irrigation and soil-related treatments. The yield simulation of the multi-model ensemble reduced the error compared to single-model simulations. The low degree of superiority of continuous simulations over single year simulation was caused by (a) insufficiently parameterised crops, which affect the performance of the following crop, and (b) the lack of growth-limiting water and/or nitrogen in the crop rotations under investigation. In order to achieve a sound representation of crop rotations, further research is required to synthesise existing knowledge of the physiology of intermediate crops and of carry-over effects from the preceding to the following crop, and to implement/improve the modelling of processes that condition these effects. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4660 |
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Author |
Graß, R.; Thies, B.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Wachendorf, M. |
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Title |
Simulating dry matter yield of two cropping systems with the simulation model HERMES to evaluate impact of future climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
70 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-10 |
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Keywords |
Climate change; Double cropping system; Biomass yield; Sowing and; harvesting dates; mean-square error; nitrogen dynamics; wheat production; carbon-dioxide; soil; water; management; sunflower; responses; crops |
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Abstract |
Regionalized model calculations showed increased rainfall and temperatures in winter and less precipitation and higher temperatures in summer due to climate change effects in the future for numerous countries in the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, model simulations predicted enhanced weather variability with an increased risk of yield losses and reduced yield stability. Recently, double cropping systems (DCS) were suggested as an environmental friendly and productive adaptation strategy with increased yield stability. This paper reviews the potential benefit of four DCS (rye (Secale cereale L.) as first crop and maize (Zea mays L.), sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), sorghum (Sorghum sudanense L. x Sorghum bicolor L.) and sudan grass (S. sudanense L.) as second crops) in comparison with four conventional sole cropping systems (SCS) (maize, sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass) with regard to dry matter (DM) yield and soil water under conditions of climate change. We used the agro-ecosystem model HERMES for simulating these variables until the year 2100. The investigated crops sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass were parameterised first for HERMES achieving a satisfying performance. Results showed always higher DM yields per year of DCS compared with SCS. This was mainly caused by yield increases of the first crop winter rye harvested at the stage of milk ripeness. As a winter hardy crop, rye will benefit from increased precipitation and higher temperatures during winter months as well as from extended growth periods with an earlier onset in spring and an increase of growing days. Furthermore, rye is able to use the increased winter humidity for its spring growth in an efficient way. By contrast, model simulations showed that summer crops will be affected by reduced precipitation and higher temperatures during summer month for periods from 2050 onwards with the consequence of reduced yields. This yield reduction was found for all summer crops both in conventional sole crop and in DCS. Preponed harvesting of first crop winter rye as a consequence of earlier onset of growth period in spring under prospective climatic conditions lead to yield decrease, which could not be equalised by preponed sowing of second crops and extension of their growth period. Hence, total annual yield of both crops together decreased. The modification of sowing and harvesting dates as an adaptation strategy requires further research with the use of more holistic simulation models. To summarize, DCS may provide a promising adaptation strategy to effects of climate change with a substantial stabilisation of crop yields. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4659 |
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Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Tao, F.; Höhn, J.G.; Palosuo, T. |
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Title |
Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3463-3476 |
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Keywords |
Breeding/*methods; Climate Change; *Computer Simulation; Ecotype; Edible Grain/*growth & development; *Models, Theoretical; cereals; climate extremes; crop growth simulation; ensemble modelling; future cultivars; genetic modelling; ideotype breeding; model improvement; model-aided design |
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A major challenge of the 21st century is to achieve food supply security under a changing climate and roughly a doubling in food demand by 2050 compared to present, the majority of which needs to be met by the cereals wheat, rice, maize, and barley. Future harvests are expected to be especially threatened through increased frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heat waves and drought, that pose particular challenges to plant breeders and crop scientists. Process-based crop models developed for simulating interactions between genotype, environment, and management are widely applied to assess impacts of environmental change on crop yield potentials, phenology, water use, etc. During the last decades, crop simulation has become important for supporting plant breeding, in particular in designing ideotypes, i.e. ‘model plants’, for different crops and cultivation environments. In this review we (i) examine the main limitations of crop simulation modelling for supporting ideotype breeding, (ii) describe developments in cultivar traits in response to climate variations, and (iii) present examples of how crop simulation has supported evaluation and design of cereal cultivars for future conditions. An early success story for rice demonstrates the potential of crop simulation modelling for ideotype breeding. Combining conventional crop simulation with new breeding methods and genetic modelling holds promise to accelerate delivery of future cereal cultivars for different environments. Robustness of model-aided ideotype design can further be enhanced through continued improvements of simulation models to better capture effects of extremes and the use of multi-model ensembles. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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Review |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4804 |
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Author |
Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Watson, J.; Challinor, A.J. |
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Title |
Identifying traits for genotypic adaptation using crop models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3451-3462 |
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Keywords |
Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics; Environment; Genotype; *Models, Theoretical; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable; Climate change; crop models; genotypic adaptation; ideotypes; impacts |
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Genotypic adaptation involves the incorporation of novel traits in crop varieties so as to enhance food productivity and stability and is expected to be one of the most important adaptation strategies to future climate change. Simulation modelling can provide the basis for evaluating the biophysical potential of crop traits for genotypic adaptation. This review focuses on the use of models for assessing the potential benefits of genotypic adaptation as a response strategy to projected climate change impacts. Some key crop responses to the environment, as well as the role of models and model ensembles for assessing impacts and adaptation, are first reviewed. Next, the review describes crop-climate models can help focus the development of future-adapted crop germplasm in breeding programmes. While recently published modelling studies have demonstrated the potential of genotypic adaptation strategies and ideotype design, it is argued that, for model-based studies of genotypic adaptation to be used in crop breeding, it is critical that modelled traits are better grounded in genetic and physiological knowledge. To this aim, two main goals need to be pursued in future studies: (i) a better understanding of plant processes that limit productivity under future climate change; and (ii) a coupling between genetic and crop growth models-perhaps at the expense of the number of traits analysed. Importantly, the latter may imply additional complexity (and likely uncertainty) in crop modelling studies. Hence, appropriately constraining processes and parameters in models and a shift from simply quantifying uncertainty to actually quantifying robustness towards modelling choices are two key aspects that need to be included into future crop model-based analyses of genotypic adaptation. |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4645 |
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