| Records |
| Author |
von Lampe, M.; Willenbockel, D.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Cai, Y.; Calvin, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason, d’C., Daniel; Nelson, G.C.; Sands, R.D.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; van Meijl, H. |
| Title |
Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
Volume  |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
3-3 |
| Keywords |
Computable general equilibrium; Partial equilibrium; Meta-analysis; Socioeconomic pathway; Climate change; Bioenergy; Land use; Model; intercomparison; land-use change; food demand; crop productivity; climate-change; future |
| Abstract |
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of real world commodity prices differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between -0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0169-5150 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4822 |
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| Author |
Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M. |
| Title |
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
| Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
103-116 |
| Keywords |
energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system |
| Abstract |
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise. |
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0169-5150 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4532 |
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| Author |
Müller, C.; Robertson, R.D. |
| Title |
Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
| Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
37-50 |
| Keywords |
climate change; crop modeling; agricultural productivity; land use; greenhouse-gas emissions; soil organic-carbon; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; elevated co2; land-use; system model; wheat yields; maize yields; agriculture |
| Abstract |
Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change. |
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0169-5150 |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4533 |
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| Author |
Yang, H.; Dobbie, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Feng, K.; Challinor, A.J.; Chen, B.; Gao, Y.; Lee, L.; Yin, Y.; Sun, L.; Watson, J.; Koehler, A.-K.; Fan, T.; Ghosh, S. |
| Title |
Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Geophysical Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Geophys. Res. Let. |
| Volume |
43 |
Issue |
22 |
Pages |
11786-11795 |
| Keywords |
Mangrove Tidal Creek; Land-Ocean Boundary; Carbon-Dioxide; Organic-Matter; River Estuary; European Estuaries; CO2 Fluxes; NE Coast; Water; Bay; fCO(2) (water); air-water CO2 flux; Hugli Estuary; Matla Estuary; Blue Carbon; source of CO2 |
| Abstract |
Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have detrimental effects for groundnut. Using an ensemble of crop-climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. It is somewhat reassuring, however, to find that after a sustained period of 50 years of geoengineering crop yields return to the nongeoengineered values within a few years once the intervention is ceased. |
| Address |
2017-01-20 |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0094-8276 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_MACSUR |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4936 |
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| Author |
Kriegler, E.; Bauer, N.; Popp, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Leimbach, M.; Strefler, J.; Baumstark, L.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Hilaire, J.; Klein, D.; Mouratiadou, I.; Weindl, I.; Bertram, C.; Dietrich, J.-P.; Luderer, G.; Pehl, M.; Pietzcker, R.; Piontek, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Biewald, A.; Bonsch, M.; Giannousakis, A.; Kreidenweis, U.; Müller, C.; Rolinski, S.; Schultes, A.; Schwanitz, J.; Stevanovic, M.; Calvin, K.; Emmerling, J.; Fujimori, S.; Edenhofer, O. |
| Title |
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
| Volume |
42 |
Issue |
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Pages |
297-315 |
| Keywords |
Shared Socio-economic Pathway; SSP5; Emission scenario; Energy transformation; Land-use change; Integrated assessment modeling |
| Abstract |
Highlights • The SSP5 scenarios mark the upper end of the scenario literature in fossil fuel use, food demand, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. • The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). • An investigation of mitigation policies in SSP5 confirms high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. • In SSP5, ambitious climate targets require land based carbon management options such as avoided deforestation and bioenergy production with CCS. • The SSP5 scenarios provide useful reference points for future climate change, impact, adaption, mitigation and sustainable development analysis. Abstract This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development. |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0959-3780 |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5005 |
| Permanent link to this record |
