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Author Perego, A.; Giussani, A.; Sanna, M.; Fumagalli, M.; Carozzi, M.; Alfieri, L.; Brenna, S.; Acutis, M.
Title The ARMOSA simulation crop model: overall features, calibration and validation results Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Italian Journal of Agrometeorology Abbreviated Journal Italian Journal of Agrometeorology
Volume (down) 3 Issue Pages 23-38
Keywords simulation model; crop growth; water dynamics; nitrogen leaching; performance assessment; nitrogen dilution curve; field-scale; soil; systems; maize; water; dynamics; growth; winter; evaporation
Abstract ARMOSA is a dynamic simulation model which was developed to simulate crop growth and development, water and nitrogen dynamics under different pedoclimatic conditions and cropping systems in the arable land. The model is meant to be a tool for the evaluation of the impact of different crop management practices on soil nitrogen and carbon cycles and groundwater nitrate pollution. A large data set collected over three to six years from six monitoring sites in Lombardia plain was used to calibrate and validate the model parameters. Measured meteorological data, soil chemical and physical characterizations, crop-related data of different cropping systems allowed for a proper parameterization. Fit indexes showed the reliability of the model in adequately predicting crop-related variables, such as above ground biomass (RRMSE=11.18, EF=0.94, r=0.97), Leaf Area Index maximum value (RRMSE=8.24, EF=0.37, r=0.72), harvest index (RRMSE=19.4, EF=0.32, r=0.74), and crop N uptake (RRMSE=20.25, EF=0.69, r=0.85). Using two different one-year data set from each monitoring site, the model was calibrated and validated, getting to encouraging results: RRMSE=6.28, EF=0.52, r=0.68 for soil water content at different depths, and RRMSE=34.89, EF=0.59, r=0.75 for soil NO3-N content along soil profile. The simulated N leaching was in full agreement with measured data (RRMSE=26.62, EF=0.88, r=0.98).
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2038-5625 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4612
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Author Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K.; Thomson, A.
Title Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Earth’s Future Abbreviated Journal Earth’s Future
Volume (down) 2 Issue Pages 83-98
Keywords integrated assessment; climate impacts; emissions mitigation; representative concentration pathway; land-use; carbon; stabilization; cmip5
Abstract This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6W/m(2) in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2328-4277 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4531
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Author Webber, H.; Gaiser, T.; Oomen, R.; Teixeira, E.; Zhao, G.; Wallach, D.; Zimmermann, A.; Ewert, F.
Title Uncertainty in future irrigation water demand and risk of crop failure for maize in Europe Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Environmental Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Environ. Res. Lett.
Volume (down) Issue Pages
Keywords crop model; impact assessment; crop water use; evapotranspiration; irrigation; drought; uncertainty
Abstract While crop models are widely used to assess the change in crop productivity with climate change, their skill in assessing irrigation water demand or the risk of crop failure in large area impact assessments is relatively unknown. The objective of this study is to investigate which aspects of modeling crop water use (reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0), soil water extraction, soil evaporation, soil water balance and root growth) contributes most to the variability in estimates of maize crop water use and the risk of crop failure, and demonstrate the resulting uncertainty in a climate change impact study for Europe. The SIMPLACE crop modeling framework was used to couple the LINTUL5 crop model in factorial combinations of 2-3 different approaches for simulating the 5 aspects of crop water use, resulting in 51 modeling approaches. Using experiments in France and New Zeland, analysis of total sensitivity revealed that ET0 explained the most variability in both irrigated maize water use and rainfed grain yield levels, with soil evaporation also imporatant in the French experiment. In the European impact study, net irrigation requirement differed by 36% between the Penman and Hargreaves ET0 methods in the baseline period. Average EU grain yields were similar between models, but differences approached 1-2 tonnes in parts of France and Southern Europe. EU wide esimates of crop failure in the historical period ranged between 5.4 years for Priestley-Taylor to every 7.9 years for the Penman ET0 methods. While the uncertainty in absolute values between models was significant, estimates of relative changes were similar between models, confirming the utility of crop models in assessing climate change impacts. If ET0 estimates in crop models can be improved, through the use of appropriate methods, uncertainty in irrigation water demand as well as in yield estimates under drought can be reduced.
Address 2016-09-13
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Language Summary Language Newsletter July Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium Article
Area CropM Expedition Conference
Notes CropM; wos; ft=macsur; Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4778
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