| Records |
| Author |
Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
| Title |
Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Volume  |
52 |
Issue |
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Pages |
69-80 |
| Keywords |
integrated assessment; data envelopment analysis; farm adaptation; farm model; technical efficiency; agricultural land-use; integrated assessment; european-community; future; crop; efficiency; impacts; systems |
| Abstract |
Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current “best” practices and explore future adaptation strategies at farm level. The objective of this article is to assess the impact of different climate change and socio-economic scenarios on arable farming systems in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and to explore possible adaptation strategies. Data Envelopment Analysis was used to identify these current “best” practices while bio-economic modelling was used to calculate a number of important economic and environmental indicators in scenarios for 2050. Relative differences between yields with and without climate change and technological change were simulated with a crop bio-physical model and used as a correction factors for the observed crop yields of current “best” practices. We demonstrated the capacity of the proposed methodology to explore multiple scenarios by analysing the importance of drivers of change, while accounting for variation between individual farms. It was found that farmers in Flevoland are in general technically efficient and a substantial share of the arable land is currently under profit maximization. We found that climate change increased productivity in all tested scenarios. However, the effects of different socio-economic scenarios (globalized and regionalized economies) on the economic and environmental performance of the farms were variable. Scenarios of a globalized economy where the prices of outputs were simulated to increase substantially might result in increased average gross margin and lower average (per ha) applications of crop protection and fertilizers. However, the effects might differ between different farm types. It was found that, the abolishment of sugar beet quota and changes of future prices of agricultural inputs and outputs in such socio-economic scenario (i.e. globalized economy) caused a decrease in gross margins of smaller (in terms of economic size) farms, while gross margin of larger farms increased. In scenarios where more regionalized economies and a moderate climate change are assumed, the future price ratios between inputs and outputs are shown to be the key factors for the viability of arable farms in our simulations. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4526 |
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| Author |
Dumont, B.; Leemans, V.; Mansouri, M.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
| Title |
Parameter identification of the STICS crop model, using an accelerated formal MCMC approach |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
52 |
Issue |
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Pages |
121-135 |
| Keywords |
crop model; parameter estimation; bayes; stics; dream; global sensitivity-analysis; simulation-model; nitrogen balances; bayesian-approach; generic model; wheat; prediction; water; optimization; algorithm |
| Abstract |
This study presents a Bayesian approach for the parameters’ identification of the STICS crop model based on the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The posterior distributions of nine specific crop parameters of the STICS model were sampled with the aim to improve the growth simulations of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L) culture. The results obtained with the DREAM algorithm were initially compared to those obtained with a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm embedded within the OptimiSTICS package. Then, three types of likelihood functions implemented within the DREAM algorithm were compared, namely the standard least square, the weighted least square, and a transformed likelihood function that makes explicit use of the coefficient of variation (CV). The results showed that the proposed CV likelihood function allowed taking into account both noise on measurements and heteroscedasticity which are regularly encountered in crop modelling. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
1364-8152 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4520 |
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| Author |
Özkan, Ş.; Hill, J.; Cullen, B. |
| Title |
Effect of climate variability on pasture-based dairy feeding systems in south-east Australia |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Animal Production Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Animal Production Science |
| Volume |
55 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
1106-1116 |
| Keywords |
carry-forward surplus; conserved-hay; probability; winter deficit; grown forage consumption; new-zealand; nutritive characteristics; interannual variation; botanical composition; herbage accumulation; crop; systems; cows; management; profit |
| Abstract |
The Australian dairy industry relies primarily on pasture for its feed supply. However, the variability in climate affects plant growth, leading to uncertainty in dryland pasture supply. This paper models the impact of climate variability on pasture production and examines the potential of two pasture-based dairy feeding systems: (1) to experience winter deficits; (2) to carry forward the conserved pasture surpluses as silage for future use; and (3) to conserve pasture surpluses as hay. The two dairy feeding systems examined were a traditional perennial ryegrass-based feeding system (ryegrass max. – RM) and a system that incorporated double cropping into the perennial ryegrass pasture base (complementary forage – CF). The conditional probability of the RM and CF systems to generate pasture deficits in winter were 94% and 96%, respectively. Both systems could carry forward the surplus silage into the following lactation almost once in every 4-5 years with the RM system performing slightly better than the CF system. The proportions of the grain-based concentrates fed in the two systems were 25% and 27% for the RM and CF systems, respectively. This study suggests that double-cropping systems have the potential to provide high-quality feed to support the feed gaps when pasture is not available due to increased variability in climatic conditions. |
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2015-09-23 |
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English |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1836-5787 |
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Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
LiveM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4689 |
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| Author |
Bulak, P.; Walkiewicz, A.; Brzezińska, M. |
| Title |
Plant growth regulators-assisted phytoextraction |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Biologia Plantarum |
Abbreviated Journal |
Biol. Plant. |
| Volume |
58 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
1-8 |
| Keywords |
auxins; cytokinins; gibberelins; heavy metals; phytoremediation; pollutants; Zea-mays l.; heavy-metals; Pteris-vittata; organic-acids; molecular-mechanisms; contaminated soils; Sedum-alfredii; lead uptake; hyperaccumulation; phytoremediation |
| Abstract |
Plant growth regulators (PRG)-assisted phytoremediation is a technique that could enhance the yield of heavy metal accumulation in plant tissues. So far, a small number of experiments have helped identify three groups of plant hormones that may be useful for this purpose: auxins, cytokinins, and gibberellins. Studies have shown that these hormones positively affect the degree of accumulation of metallic impurities and improve the growth and stress resistance of plants. This review summarizes the present knowledge about PGRs’ impact on phytoextraction yield. |
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English |
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0006-3134 |
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Medium |
Review |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4515 |
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| Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Alghabari, F.; Gooding, M.J. |
| Title |
Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Cereal Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Ceareal Sci. |
| Volume |
59 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
245-256 |
| Keywords |
A, maximum area of flag leaf area; ABA, abscisic acid; CV, coefficient of variation; Crop improvement; Crop modelling; FC, field capacity; GMT, Greenwich mean time; GS, growth stage; Gf, grain filling duration; HI, harvest index; HSP, heat shock protein; Heat and drought tolerance; Impact assessment; LAI, leaf area index; Ph, phylochron; Pp, photoperiod response; Ru, root water uptake; S, duration of leaf senescence; SF, drought stress factor; Sirius; Wheat ideotype |
| Abstract |
Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat. |
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English |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0733-5210 |
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Review |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4543 |
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