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| Author |
Lehtonen, H.S.; Liu, X.; Purola, T.; Rötter, R.; Palosuo, T. |
| Title |
Farm level dynamic economic modelling of crop rotation with adaptation practices |
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Report |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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3 |
Issue |
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Sp3-9 |
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Agriculture is facing increasing challenges under volatile commodity markets, on-going climate change with more frequent extreme weather events and tightened environmental constraints. Crop rotation is considered essential and may even gain more importance for sustainable farming in the context of climate change challenges while monocropping is expected to become increasingly problematic. This is, among others, because of increasing plant protection challenges due to warmer climate which is expected to result in severe droughts, heavy rainfall and waterlogging in northern latitudes more frequently. Such changes require improved soil structure and water retention, also aided by crop rotations, to avoid yield losses. Our objective is to build and apply a dynamic optimization model of farm level crop rotation on many field parcels over 30-40 years. The model takes into account various adaptation management methods such as fungicide treatment, soil improvements such as liming, and nitrogen fertilization, simultaneously with dynamic crop rotation choices. However, these management options come along with costs. Using the model, outcomes of crop growth simulation modeling can be included into economic analysis. Simulated new cultivars, suited for a longer growing season, can be defined as alternatives to current cultivars, both having specific nutrient and other input requirements such as water, labor or pesticides. The model is used in evaluating the value of future cultivars and other management practices in climate and socio-economic scenarios. The first results show that expected market prices have major impacts on the management choices, the resulting yield levels, production and income over time. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2226 |
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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
| Title |
Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting |
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Report |
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2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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3 |
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Sp3-7 |
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Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2224 |
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Porter, J.R.; Dyball, R.; Dumaresq, D.; Deutsch, L.; Matsuda, H. |
| Title |
Feeding capitals: Urban food security and self-provisioning in Canberra, Copenhagen and Tokyo |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Food Security |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Food Security |
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3 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
1-7 |
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cities; food security; self-provisioning; provisioning ecosystems |
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Most people live in cities, but most food system studies and food security issues focus on the rural poor. Urban populations differ from rural populations in their food consumption by being generally wealthier, requiring food trade for their food security, defined as the extent to which people have adequate diets. Cities rarely have the self-provisioning capacity to satisfy their own food supply, understood as the extent to which the food consumed by the city’s population is produced from the city’s local agro-ecosystems. Almost inevitably, a city’s food security is augmented by production from remote landscapes, both internal and external in terms of a state’s jurisdiction. We reveal the internal and external food flows necessary for the food security of three wealthy capital cities (Canberra, Australia; Copenhagen, Denmark; Tokyo, Japan). These cities cover two orders of magnitude in population size and three orders of magnitude in population density. From traded volumes of food and their sources into the cities, we calculate the productivity of the city’s regional and non-regional ecosystems that provide food for these cities and estimate the overall utilised land area. The three cities exhibit differing degrees of food self provisioning capacity and exhibit large differences in the areas on which they depend to provide their food. We show that, since 1965, global land area effectively imported to produce food for these cities has increased with their expanding populations, with large reductions in the percentage of demand met by local agro-ecosystems. The physical trading of food commodities embodies ecosystem services, such as water, soil fertility and pollination that are required for land-based food production. This means that the trade in these embodied ecosystem services has become as important for food security as traditional economic mechanisms such as market access and trade. A future policy question, raised by our study, is the degree to which governments will remain committed to open food trade policies in the face of national political unrest caused by food shortages. Our study demonstrates the need to determine the food security and self-provisioning capacity of a wide range of rich and poor cities, taking into account the global location of the ecosystems that are provisioning them. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2211-9124 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4636 |
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Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
| Title |
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
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Nat. Clim. Change |
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
827-832 |
| Keywords |
crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts |
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Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking. |
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1758-678x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4599 |
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Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.; Trnka, M.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.R.; Kahiluoto, H. |
| Title |
Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecology and Evolution |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Evol. |
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
4197-4214 |
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Adaptation; agroclimatic indicator; barley; crop simulation model; cultivar response diversity |
| Abstract |
THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections. |
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2045-7758 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4576 |
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