| Records |
| Author |
Wallach, D.; Mearns, L.O.; Ruane, A.C.; Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S. |
| Title |
Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Climatic Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Change |
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| Keywords |
Model ensembles; Crop models; Climate models; Model weighting; Super ensembles |
| Abstract |
Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor. |
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English |
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0165-0009 1573-1480 |
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Review |
| Area |
CropM |
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| Notes |
CropM; wos; ft=macsur; wsnotyet; |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4781 |
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| Author |
Nendel, C.; Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Asseng, S.; Ruane, A.C.; Banse, M.; Tiffin, R.; Brouwer, F.; Sinabell, F.; Scollan, N.; Meijs, J.; Angulo, C.; Antle, J.M.; Baigorria, G.; Basso, B.; Bindi, M.; Boote, K.J.; Gaiser, T.; Janssen, S.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nelson, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Porter, C.H.; Porter, J.R.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.; Stewart, D.; Thorburn, P.; Trnka, M.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Verhagen, J.; Wallach, D.; Winter, J.M. |
| Title |
Addressing challenges and uncertainties for, the use of agro-ecosystem models to, assess climate change impact and food security across scales |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2013 |
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CropM |
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Climate Change and Regional Responses Conference, Dresden, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-27 |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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2679 |
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| Author |
Liu, X.; Lehtonen, H.; Purola, T.; Pavlova, Y.; Rötter, R.P., T. |
| Title |
Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotation with adaptation practices |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
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TradeM |
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14th EAAE Congress, Ljubljana (Slovenia), 2014-08-26 to 2014-08-29 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2604 |
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| Author |
Kersebaum, C.; Nendel, C.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Documentation of temperature algorithms in the models HERMES, MONICA and WOFOST |
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Conference Article |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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AgMIP workshop “Wheat Response to High Temperature”, El Batan/Mexico., 2013-06-19 to 2013-06-21 |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2522 |
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| Author |
Ewert, F.; Boote, K.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Thorburn, P.; Nendel, C. (eds) |
| Title |
Crop modelling for agriculture and food security under global change. Abstracts. International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM2016, 15-17 March 2016, Berlin, Germany |
Type |
Book Whole |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
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| Keywords |
CropM; MACSUR_ACK |
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Place of Publication |
Berlin |
Editor |
Ewert, F.; Boote, K.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Thorburn, P.; Nendel, C. |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2428 |
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