Records |
Author |
Porter, J.R.; Soussana, J.-F.; Fereres, E.; Long, S.; Mohren, F.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; von Braun, J. |
Title |
European Perspectives: An Agronomic Science Plan for Food Security in a Changing Climate |
Type |
Book Chapter |
Year |
2012 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
CropM |
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Publisher |
Co-Published With Imperial College Press |
Place of Publication |
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Editor |
Hillel, D.; Rosenzweig, C. |
Language |
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Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Global and Regional Aspects and Implications |
Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, |
Series Issue |
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Edition |
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Area |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2732 |
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Author |
Wang, E.; Martre, P.; Zhao, Z.; Ewert, F.; Maiorano, A.; Rötter, R.P.; Kimball, B.A.; Ottman, M.J.; Wall, G.W.; White, J.W.; Reynolds, M.P.; Alderman, P.D.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L.A.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C.D.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Liu, L.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ripoche, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; Wang, Z.; Wolf, J.; Zhu, Y.; Asseng, S. |
Title |
The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Nature Plants |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nature Plants |
Volume |
3 |
Issue |
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Pages |
17102 |
Keywords |
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Abstract |
Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections. Erratum: doi: 10.1038/nplants.2017.125 |
Address |
2017-08-28 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5173 |
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Author |
Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R.P.; Lobell, D.B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B.A.; Ottman, M.J.; Wall, G.W.; White, J.W.; Reynolds, M.P.; Alderman, P.D.; Prasad, P.V.V.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L.A.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C.D.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A.C.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. |
Title |
Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
Volume |
5 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
143-147 |
Keywords |
climate-change; spring wheat; dryland wheat; yield; growth; drought; heat; CO2; agriculture; adaptation |
Abstract |
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time. |
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Language |
English |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1758-678x |
ISBN |
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Article |
Area |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4550 |
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Author |
Liu, B.; Asseng, S.; Müller, C.; Ewert, F.; Elliott, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Martre, P.; Ruane, A. C.; Wallach, D.; Jones, J. W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Alderman, P. D.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.; Deryng, D.; Sanctis, G. D.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Folberth, C.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kimball, B. A.; Koehler, A.-K.; Kumar, S. N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G. J.; Olesen, J. E.; Ottman, M. J.; Palosuo, T.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Priesack, E.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Reynolds, M.; Rezaei, E. E.; Rötter, R. P.; Schmid, E.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stehfest, E.; Stöckle, C. O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.; Waha, K.; Wall, G. W.; Wang, E.; White, J. W.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. |
Title |
Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
Volume |
6 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
1130-1136 |
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Abstract |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1758-678x |
ISBN |
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Medium |
article |
Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4965 |
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Author |
Soussana, J.-F.; Fereres, E.; Long, S.P.; Mohren, F.G.M.J.; Pandya-Lorch, R.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Porter, J.R.; Rosswall, T.; von Braun, J. |
Title |
A European science plan to sustainably increase food security under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
Volume |
18 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
3269-3271 |
Keywords |
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Abstract |
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Address |
2016-10-31 |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1354-1013 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Letter |
Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4815 |
Permanent link to this record |