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Toscano, P., Genesio, L., Crisci, A., Vaccari, F. P., Ferrari, E., La Cava, P., et al. (2015). Empirical modelling of regional and national durum wheat quality. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 204, 67–78.
Abstract: The production of durum wheat in the Mediterranean basin is expected to experience increased variability in yield and quality as a consequence of climate change. To assess how environmental variables and agronomic practices affect grain protein content (GPC), a novel approach based on monthly gridded input data has been implemented to develop empirical model, and validated on historical time series to assess its capability to reproduce observed spatial and inter-annual GPC variability. The model was applied in four Italian regions and at the whole national scale and proved reliable and usable for operational purposes also in a forecast ‘real-time’ mode before harvesting. Precipitable water during autumn to winter and air temperature from anthesis to harvest were extremely important influences on GPC; these and additional variables, included in a linear model, were able to account for 95% of the variability in GPC that has occurred in the last 15 years in Italy. Our results are a unique example of the use of modelling as a predictive real-time platform and are a useful tool to understand better and forecast the impacts of future climate change projections on durum wheat production and quality.
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Rodriguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Palosuo, T., Carter, T. R., Fronzek, S., Lorite, I. J., et al. (2019). Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 264, 351–362.
Abstract: unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivwn L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.
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Porter, J. R., & Wratten, S. (2014). National carbon stocks: Move on to a carbon currency standard. Nature, 506, 295.
Abstract: Alongside Robert Costanza and colleagues’ plea to abandon gross domestic product as a measure of national success (see Nature 505, 283–285; 2014), we believe that there is an urgent need to change the way currencies are valued — by using a new ‘carbon standard’ that links economy to ecology. This would work in a similar way to the old gold-exchange standard, except that a country’s currency value would instead be determined by its saved and standing stocks of fossil and non-fossil carbon. Governments would need to decide whether to risk devaluing their currency by depleting carbon stocks — while still honouring a commitment to keep fossil-carbon stocks at 80% as a safeguard against extreme climate change. After the Second World War, huge investments radically altered the economies of the United States, the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom. In the face of climate change, it is now the global energy system that needs reinvention.
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Porter, J. R., Durand, J. L., & Elmayan, T. (2016). Edited plants should not be patented. Nature, 530, 33.
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