Records |
Author |
Dumont, B.; Vancutsem, F.; Seutin, B.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
Title |
Simulation de la croissance du blé à l’aide de modèles écophysiologiques: Synthèse bibliographique des méthodes, potentialités et limitations |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Biotechnologie, Agronomie, Société et Environnement |
Abbreviated Journal |
Biotechnologie, Agronomie, Société et Environnement |
Volume ![sorted by Volume (numeric) field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
163 |
Issue |
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Pages |
376-386 |
Keywords |
crops; growth; soil; Triticum; wheats; calibration; optimization methods |
Abstract |
Crop models describe the growth and development of a crop interacting with its surrounding agro-environmental conditions (soil, climate and the close conditions of the plant). However, the implementation of such models remains difficult because of the high number of explanatory variables and parameters. It often happens that important discrepancies appear between measured and simulated values. This article aims to highlight the different sources of uncertainty related to the use of crop models, as well as the actual methods that allow a compensation for or, at least, a consideration of these sources of error during analysis of the model results. This article presents a literature review, which firstly synthesises the general mathematical structure of crop models. The main criteria for evaluating crop models are then described. Finally, several methods used for improving models are given. Parameter estimation methods, including frequentist and Bayesian approaches, are presented and data assimilation methods are reviewed. |
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Place of Publication |
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Language |
French |
Summary Language |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4584 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Dáder, B.; Plaza, M.; Fereres, A.; Moreno, A. |
Title |
Flight behaviour of vegetable pests and their natural enemies under different ultraviolet-blocking enclosures |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Annals of Applied Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ann. Appl. Biol. |
Volume ![sorted by Volume (numeric) field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
167 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
116-126 |
Keywords |
agricultural pests; insect orientation; natural enemies; photoselective enclosures; uv light; aphidius-colemani; plastic films; myzus-persicae; insect pests; frankliniella-occidentalis; trialeurodes-vaporariorum; spectral efficiency; encarsia-formosa; protect crops; greenhouse |
Abstract |
Ultraviolet (UV) radiation, particularly in the UV-A + B range (280-400 nm) is a fraction of the solar spectrum that regulates almost every aspect of insect behaviour, including orientation towards hosts, alighting, arrestment and feeding behaviour. To study the role of UV radiation on the flight activity of five insect species of agricultural importance (pests Myzus persicae, Bemisia tabaci and Tuta absoluta, and natural enemies Aphidius colemani and Sphaerophoria rueppellii), one-chamber tunnels were covered with six cladding materials with different light transmittance properties ranging from 2% to 83% UV and 54% to 85% photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Inside each tunnel, insects were released from tubes placed in a platform suspended from the ceiling. Specific targets varying with insect species were placed at different distances from the platform. Evaluation parameters were designed for each insect and tested separately. The ability of insects to leave the platform was assessed, as well as the number of captures, eggs or mummies in each target, either sticky traps or plants. Our results suggest differences in flight activity among insect species and UV-blocking nets. The UV-opaque film drastically prevented aphids, and whiteflies from flying outside the tubes whereas T. absoluta, syrphids and parasitoids were not affected. Aphid flight behaviour was affected by the UV-opaque film compared to the other nets, especially in the furthest target of the tunnel. Fewer aphids reached distant traps under UV-absorbing nets, and significantly more aphids could fly to the end of tunnels covered with non-UV-blocking materials. Orientation of B. tabaci and T. absoluta was also negatively affected by the UV-opaque film although in a different trend. Unlike aphids, differences in B. tabaci captures were mainly found in the closest targets. UV transmittance did not have any effects on parasitoids, and S. rueppellii, implying cues other than visual for these insects under our experimental conditions. Further effects of photoselective enclosures on greenhouse pests and their natural enemies are discussed. |
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English |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0003-4746 |
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Article |
Area |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4555 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Challinor, A.J.; Smith, M.S.; Thornton, P. |
Title |
Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Volume ![sorted by Volume (numeric) field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
170 |
Issue |
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Pages |
2-7 |
Keywords |
Climate models; Crop models; Ensembles; Climate change; Adaptation; Food security; Climate variability; Uncertainty; Crop yield |
Abstract |
► Introduces the special issue on Agricultural prediction using climate model ensembles. ► Discuss remaining scientific challenges. ► Develops distinction between projection- and utility-based ensemble modelling. ► Recommendations made RE modelling and the analysis and reporting of uncertainty. Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop–climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality. |
Address |
2015-09-23 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Article |
Area |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4690 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Angulo, C.; Rötter, R.; Lock, R.; Enders, A.; Fronzek, S.; Ewert, F. |
Title |
Implication of crop model calibration strategies for assessing regional impacts of climate change in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Volume ![sorted by Volume (numeric) field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
170 |
Issue |
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Pages |
32-46 |
Keywords |
regional crop modelling; calibration; impact assessment; yield variability; simulation; simulation-models; elevated CO2; integrated assessment; bayesian calibration; atmospheric CO2; growth simulation; use efficiency; spring wheat; winter-wheat; large-area |
Abstract |
Process-based crop simulation models are increasingly used in regional climate change impact studies, but little is known about the implications of different calibration strategies on simulated yields. This study aims to assess the importance of region-specific calibration of five important field crops (winter wheat, winter barley, potato, sugar beet and maize) across 25 member countries of the European Union (EU25). We examine three calibration strategies and their implications on spatial and temporal yield variability in response to climate change: (i) calculation of phenology parameters only, (ii) consideration of both phenology calibration and a yield correction factor and (iii) calibration of phenology and selected growth processes. The analysis is conducted for 533 climate zones, considering 24 years of observed yield data (1983-2006). The best performing strategy is used to estimate the impacts of climate change, increasing CO2 concentration and technology development on yields for the five crops across EU25, using seven climate change scenarios for the period 2041-2064. Simulations and calibrations are performed with the crop model LINTUL2 combined with a calibration routine implemented in the modelling interface LINTUL-FAST. The results show that yield simulations improve if growth parameters are considered in the calibration for individual regions (strategy 3); e.g. RMSE values for simulated winter wheat yield are 2.36, 1.10 and 0.70 Mg ha(-1) for calibration strategies 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The calibration strategy did not only affect the model simulations under reference climate but also the extent of the simulated climate change impacts. Applying the calibrated model for impact assessment revealed that climatic change alone will reduce crop yields. Consideration of the effects of increasing CO2 concentration and technology development resulted in yield increases for all crops except maize (i.e. the negative effects of climate change were outbalanced by the positive effects of CO2 and technology change), with considerable differences between scenarios and regions. Our simulations also suggest some increase in yield variability due to climate change which, however, is less pronounced than the differences among scenarios which are particularly large when the effects of CO2 concentration and technology development are considered. Our results stress the need for region-specific calibration of crop models used for Europe-wide assessments. Limitations of the considered strategies are discussed. We recommend that future work should focus on obtaining more comprehensive, high quality data with a finer resolution allowing application of improved strategies for model calibration that better account for spatial differences and changes over time in the growth and development parameters used in crop models. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Article |
Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4597 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Höglind, M.; Thorsen, S.M.; Semenov, M.A. |
Title |
Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Volume ![sorted by Volume (numeric) field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
170 |
Issue |
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Pages |
103-113 |
Keywords |
climatic variability; frost damage; grass modelling; ice damage; multi-model ensemble; elevated co2 concentration; phleum-pratense l; timothy regrowth; change scenarios; winter survival; meadow fescue; crop yields; growth; frost; temperature |
Abstract |
Forage-based dairy and livestock production is the backbone of agriculture in Northern Europe in economic terms. Changes in growing conditions that affect forage grass yield may have great economic consequences. This study assessed the impact of climate change on two grass species, timothy and ryegrass, at 14 locations in Northern Europe (Iceland, Scandinavia, Baltic countries) in a near-future scenario (2040-2065) compared with the baseline period 1960-1990. Local-scale climate scenarios were based on the CMIP3 multi-model ensembles of 15 global climate models in order to quantify the uncertainty in the impacts relating to highly uncertain projections of future climate. Potential yield of timothy, the most important perennial forage grass in Northern Europe, was simulated under the assumption of optimal overwintering conditions and current CO2 level, in order to obtain an estimate of the effect of changes in summer climate per se. The risk of frost and ice damage during winter was also assessed. The simulation results demonstrated that potential grass yield will increase throughout the study area, mainly as a result of increased growing temperatures. The yield response to climate change was slightly larger in irrigated than non-irrigated conditions (14% and 11%, respectively), due to larger water deficit for the 2050 scenario. However, a geo-climatic gradient was evident, with the largest predicted yield response at western locations. A geo-climatic gradient was also revealed with respect to potential frost damage, which was predicted to increase during winter in some areas east of the Baltic Sea for timothy, and for a larger number of locations both east and west of the Baltic Sea for perennial ryegrass. The risk of frost damage in spring was predicted to increase mainly in western parts of the study area. If frost damage to perennial ryegrass increases during winter, the expected increase in winter temperature due to global warming may not necessarily improve overwintering conditions, so the growing zone may not necessarily expand to the north and east of the study area by 2050. The uncertainty in impacts was frequently, but not consistently, greater in western than eastern locations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
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Notes |
CropM, LiveM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4492 |
Permanent link to this record |