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Author Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.G.; Fronzek, S. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science Abbreviated Journal Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science  
  Volume (up) 62 Issue 4 Pages 166-180  
  Keywords climate change; impact projection; food production; uncertainty; crop simulation model; food security; integrated assessment; winter-wheat; scenarios; agriculture; adaptation; temperature; models; yield; scale  
  Abstract Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0906-4702 1651-1972 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4802  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.G.; Fronzek, S. doi  openurl
  Title Projections of climate change impacts on crop production – a global and a Nordic perspective Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science Abbreviated Journal Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science  
  Volume (up) 62 Issue Pages 166-180  
  Keywords climate change; impact projection; food production; uncertainty; crop simulation model; food security; integrated assessment; winter-wheat; scenarios; agriculture; adaptation; temperature; models; yield; scale  
  Abstract Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0906-4702, 1651-1972 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4591  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Coucheney, E.; Buis, S.; Launay, M.; Constantin, J.; Mary, B.; García de Cortázar-Atauri, I.; Ripoche, D.; Beaudoin, N.; Ruget, F.; &rianarisoa, K.S.; Le Bas, C.; Justes, E.; Léonard, J. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Accuracy, robustness and behavior of the STICS soil–crop model for plant, water and nitrogen outputs: Evaluation over a wide range of agro-environmental conditions in France Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Environmental Modelling & Software Abbreviated Journal Env. Model. Softw.  
  Volume (up) 64 Issue Pages 177-190  
  Keywords soil-crop model; stics; model performances; plant biomass; soil nitrogen; soil water; remote-sensing data; goodness-of-fit; hydrological model; simulation-models; solar-radiation; regional-scale; climate-change; generic model; data set; validation  
  Abstract Soil-crop models are increasingly used as predictive tools to assess yield and environmental impacts of agriculture in a growing diversity of contexts. They are however seldom evaluated at a given time over a wide domain of use. We tested here the performances of the STICS model (v8.2.2) with its standard set of parameters over a dataset covering 15 crops and a wide range of agropedoclimatic conditions in France. Model results showed a good overall accuracy, with little bias. Relative RMSE was larger for soil nitrate (49%) than for plant biomass (35%) and nitrogen (33%) and smallest for soil water (10%). Trends induced by contrasted environmental conditions and management practices were well reproduced. Finally, limited dependency of model errors on crops or environments indicated a satisfactory robustness. Such performances make STICS a valuable tool for studying the effects of changes in agro-ecosystems over the domain explored. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1364-8152 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4554  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Siebert, S.; Ewert, F. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Impact of data resolution on heat and drought stress simulated for winter wheat in Germany Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication European Journal of Agronomy Abbreviated Journal European Journal of Agronomy  
  Volume (up) 65 Issue Pages 69-82  
  Keywords crop modeling; heat; drought; spatial resolution; wheat; high-temperature stress; climate-change; grain-yield; crop models; data aggregation; abiotic stress; short periods; variability; growth; duration  
  Abstract Heat and drought stress can reduce crop yields considerably which is increasingly assessed with crop models for larger areas. Applying these models originally developed for the field scale at large spatial extent typically implies the use of input data with coarse resolution. Little is known about the effect of data resolution on the simulated impact of extreme events like heat and drought on crops. Hence, in this study the effect of input and output data aggregation on simulated heat and drought stress and their impact on yield of winter wheat is systematically analyzed. The crop model SIMPLACE was applied for the period 1980-2011 across Germany at a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Weather and soil input data and model output data were then aggregated to 10 km x 10 km, 25 km x 25 km, 50 km x 50 km and 100 km x 100 km resolution to analyze the aggregation effect on heat and drought stress and crop yield. We found that aggregation of model input and output data barely influenced the mean and median of heat and drought stress reduction factors and crop yields simulated across Germany. However, data aggregation resulted in less spatial variability of model results and a reduced severity of simulated stress events, particularly for regions with high heterogeneity in weather and soil conditions. Comparisons of simulations at coarse resolution with those at high resolution showed distinct patterns of positive and negative deviations which compensated each other so that aggregation effects for large regions were small for mean or median yields. Therefore, modelling at a resolution of 100 km x 100 km was sufficient to determine mean wheat yield as affected by heat and drought stress for Germany. Further research is required to clarify whether the results can be generalized across crop models differing in structure and detail. Attention should also be given to better understand the effect of data resolution on interactions between heat and drought impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1161-0301 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4751  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Ferrise, R.; Toscano, P.; Pasqui, M.; Moriondo, M.; Primicerio, J.; Semenov, M.A.; Bindi, M. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Climate Research Abbreviated Journal Clim. Res.  
  Volume (up) 65 Issue Pages 7-21  
  Keywords yield predictions; seasonal forecasts; analogue forecasts; stochastic weather generator; empirical forecasting models; durum wheat; crop modelling; mediterranean basin; general-circulation model; scale climate indexes; crop yield; grain-yield; forecasts; simulation; region; precipitation; australia; europe  
  Abstract Uncertainty in weather conditions for the forthcoming growing season influences farmers’ decisions, based on their experience of the past climate, regarding the reduction of agricultural risk. Early within-season predictions of grain yield can represent a great opportunity for farmers to improve their management decisions and potentially increase yield and reduce potential risk. This study assessed 3 methods of within-season predictions of durum wheat yield at 10 sites across the Mediterranean Basin. To assess the value of within-season predictions, the model SiriusQuality2 was used to calculate wheat yields over a 9 yr period. Initially, the model was run with observed daily weather to obtain the reference yields. Then, yield predictions were calculated at a monthly time step, starting from 6 mo before harvest, by feeding the model with observed weather from the beginning of the growing season until a specific date and then with synthetic weather constructed using the 3 methods, historical, analogue or empirical, until the end of the growing season. The results showed that it is possible to predict durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin with an accuracy of normalized root means squared error of <20%, from 5 to 6 mo earlier for the historical and empirical methods and 3 mo earlier for the analogue method. Overall, the historical method performed better than the others. Nonetheless, the analogue and empirical methods provided better estimations for low-yielding and high-yielding years, thus indicating great potential to provide more accurate predictions for years that deviate from average conditions.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0936-577x 1616-1572 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4696  
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