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Eza, U., Shtiliyanova, A., Borras, D., Bellocchi, G., Carrère, P., & Martin, R. (2015). An open platform to assess vulnerabilities to climate change: An application to agricultural systems. Ecological Informatics, 30, 389–396.
Abstract: Numerous climate futures are now available from global climate models. Translation of climate data such as precipitation and temperatures into ecologically meaningful outputs for managers and planners is the next frontier. We describe a model-based open platform to assess vulnerabilities of agricultural systems to climate change on pixel-wise data. The platform includes a simulation modeling engine and is suited to work with NetCDF format of input and output files. In a case study covering a region (Auvergne) in the Massif Central of France, the platform is configured to characterize climate (occurrence of arid conditions in historical and projected climate records), soils and human management, and is then used to assess the vulnerability to climate change of grassland productivity (downscaled to a fine scale). We demonstrate how using climate time series, and process-based simulations vulnerabilities can be defined at fine spatial scales relevant to farmers and land managers, and can be incorporated into management frameworks. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Ben Touhami, H., & Bellocchi, G. (2015). Bayesian calibration of the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) to simulate European grasslands under water stress. Ecological Informatics, 30, 356–364.
Abstract: As modeling becomes a more widespread practice in the agro-environmental sciences, scientists need reliable tools to calibrate models against ever more complex and detailed data. We present a generic Bayesian computation framework for grassland simulation, which enables parameter estimation in the Bayesian formalism by using Monte Carlo approaches. We outline the underlying rationale, discuss the computational issues, and provide results from an application of the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) to three European grasslands. The framework was suited to investigate the challenging problem of calibrating complex biophysical models to data from altered scenarios generated by precipitation reduction (water stress conditions). It was used to infer the parameters of manipulated grassland systems and to assess the gain in uncertainty reduction by updating parameter distributions using measurements of the output variables.
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Podhora, A., Helming, K., Adenäuer, L., Heckelei, T., Kautto, P., Reidsma, P., et al. (2013). The policy-relevancy of impact assessment tools: Evaluating nine years of European research funding. Environmental Science & Policy, 31, 85–95.
Abstract: Since 2002, the European Commission has employed the instrument of ex-ante impact assessments (IA) to help focus its policy-making process on implementing sustainable development. Scientific tools should play an essential role of providing the evidence base to assess the impacts of alternative policy options. To identify the contribution of research funding for IA tool development, this paper analysed the variety of IA tools designed in projects funded by European Framework Programmes (FPs) 6 and 7. The paper is based on project information available on the European Cordis website, individual project websites and a verification of the results by the project coordinators. We analysed the projects from the interests of IA practitioners as tool users (European policy and impact areas addressed by the tools, jurisdictional application levels and tool categories). Out of the 7.781 projects funded in FP6 and FP7, 203 could be identified that designed tools for the IA process. Nearly half of them applied to environmental, agricultural and transport policy areas. Within these areas, the tools primarily addressed environmental impact areas, less economic and least social impact areas. The IA tools focused on European policies. Models represented the largest tool category, whereas approximately half of the tools could not be clearly categorized. Concerning our analysis criteria, the tool descriptions available on the internet were often unclear and thus may limit the application potential of the tools because of a mismatch of technical terms and categorisation criteria between tool providers and tool users. Future IA tools require a joint political and scientific typology and a narrowing of the gaps, e.g., with view to multi-jurisdictional application and a clear reference to the steps of the IA process. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Sieber, S., Amjath-Babu, T. S., Jansson, T., Müller, K., Tscherning, K., Graef, F., et al. (2013). Sustainability impact assessment using integrated meta-modelling: Simulating the reduction of direct support under the EU common agricultural policy (CAP). Land Use Policy, 33, 235–245.
Abstract: Assessing the impact of macro-level policy driven land use changes on regional sustainability is an important task that can facilitate complex decision making processes of introducing reforms. The research work demonstrates the ability of Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), a meta-model, in conducting ex ante spatially explicit cross sectoral impact assessments of changes in common agricultural policy (CAP). The meta-model is able to appraise impacts of CAP amendments on land use and their repercussions on multiple indicators of sustainability. The presented study comprehensively analyses the possible impacts of discontinuing direct financial support to farmers under CAP. The simulations of the meta-model are able to reveal the land use changes both at EU and regional levels as well as to bring forth the subsequent changes in a number of indicators representing the regional sustainability (for five case study regions). In a nutshell, the simulations indicate that a reduction in direct support brings in general, a decrease in farmed area, an increase in forested land, less fluctuation in natural vegetation coverage, increase in abandoned arable land area and negligible changes in built-up area despite regionally diverging land use trends. The simulated changes in sustainability indicators for the study regions in consequence to these land use changes show that the discontinuation of subsidies evokes responses that are in general climate friendly (reduction in methane and N2O emissions, diminishing energy use and reduction in global warming potential), economically beneficial (increase in gross value of agriculture) and socially desired (decrease in unemployment rate) as well as environmentally harmful (increase in pesticide use). Even though the appraisals of diversity indicators such as forest deadwood and farmland birds are not conclusive for all regions, the changes are positive for the former indicator and slightly negative for the latter in general. The trade-offs among these regional sustainability indicators using their directional associations are also presented for a comprehensive assessment of the impacts. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: SIAT; CAP; sustainability; impact assessment; land use change; trade off analysis; model; Netherlands; systems
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Helming, K., Diehl, K., Geneletti, D., & Wiggering, H. (2013). Mainstreaming ecosystem services in European policy impact assessment. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 40, 82–87.
Abstract: The concept of ecosystem services as developed for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is currently the most extensive, international, scientific concept dealing with the interaction between the world’s ecosystems and human well-being. The fundamental asset is seen in the relevancy of the concept at the science–policy interface. Albeit, the mainstreaming of ecosystem services into policy making requires a framework that allows the transition of the scientific concept into the rationale of policy making. We hypothesize that the procedure of policy impact assessment is a suitable venue for this transition. This brings up two questions: 1) where in the process of policy impact assessment can ecosystem services be mainstreamed? 2) How can the impact on ecosystem services properly be accounted for? In this paper we distinguish two groups of policy cases: explicit cases directly addressing ecosystem services, and implicit cases of policies that follow other purposes but may have unintended impacts on ecosystem services as a side effect. The second group covers a wide range of policies for which we set out a framework for mainstreaming of ecosystem services. The framework is exemplary designed for the instrument of ex-ante impact assessment at European policy making level. We reveal that the two concepts of the MA and of the European policy impact assessment are indeed compatible, which makes the integration of the ecosystem service concept possible. We conclude that the linkage of the scientifically validated concept of ecosystem services with the policy concept of impact assessment has the potential of improving the credibility of the latter.
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