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Author Wallach, D.; Mearns, L.O.; Ruane, A.C.; Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S.
Title Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Climatic Change Abbreviated Journal Clim. Change
Volume (up) Issue Pages
Keywords Model ensembles; Crop models; Climate models; Model weighting; Super ensembles
Abstract Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0165-0009 1573-1480 ISBN Medium Review
Area CropM Expedition Conference
Notes CropM; wos; ft=macsur; wsnotyet; Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4781
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Author Semenov, M.A.; Mitchell, R.A.C.; Whitmore, A.P.; Hawkesford, M.J.; Parry, M.A.J.; Shewry, P.R.
Title Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions Type Journal Article
Year 2012 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change
Volume (up) 2 Issue 6 Pages 380-382
Keywords winter-wheat; elevated CO2; temperature; growth
Abstract Predictions of a 40–140% increase in wheat yield by 2050, reported in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, are based on a simplistic approach that ignores key factors affecting yields and hence are seriously misleading.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1758-678x 1758-6798 ISBN Medium Commentary
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4504
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Author Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.
Title Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change Type Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change
Volume (up) 3 Issue 9 Pages 827-832
Keywords crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts
Abstract Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1758-678x ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4599
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Author Thornton, P.; Ewert, F.
Title Making the most of climate impacts ensembles (vol 4, pg 77, 2014) – Correction Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change
Volume (up) 4 Issue 3 Pages 166-166
Keywords
Abstract
Address 2016-10-31
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1758-678x ISBN Medium Letter
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4817
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Author Trnka, M.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Žalud, Z.; Semenov, M.A.
Title Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change
Volume (up) 4 Issue 7 Pages 637-643
Keywords scenarios; increase; models; variability; responses; extremes; impacts; shifts
Abstract Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within one season. We showed that the occurrence of adverse conditions for 14 sites representing the main European wheat-growing areas might substantially increase by 2060 compared to the present (1981-2010). This is likely to result in more frequent crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1758-678x 1758-6798 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4545
Permanent link to this record