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Author Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Carter, T.R.; Harrison, P.A.; Rounsevell, M.
Title Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models Type Journal Article
Year 2019 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change
Volume 19 Issue 3 Pages 711-721
Keywords Adaptive capacity; Limits; Water; Land; Decision making; Integrated assessment; Land-Cover Change; Global Change; River-Basin; Integrated Assessment; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability; Variability; Precautionary; Agriculture; Management
Abstract Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.
Address 2019-04-27
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5220
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Author Yang, H.; Dobbie, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Feng, K.; Challinor, A.J.; Chen, B.; Gao, Y.; Lee, L.; Yin, Y.; Sun, L.; Watson, J.; Koehler, A.-K.; Fan, T.; Ghosh, S.
Title Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Geophysical Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Geophys. Res. Let.
Volume 43 Issue 22 Pages 11786-11795
Keywords Mangrove Tidal Creek; Land-Ocean Boundary; Carbon-Dioxide; Organic-Matter; River Estuary; European Estuaries; CO2 Fluxes; NE Coast; Water; Bay; fCO(2) (water); air-water CO2 flux; Hugli Estuary; Matla Estuary; Blue Carbon; source of CO2
Abstract Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have detrimental effects for groundnut. Using an ensemble of crop-climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. It is somewhat reassuring, however, to find that after a sustained period of 50 years of geoengineering crop yields return to the nongeoengineered values within a few years once the intervention is ceased.
Address 2017-01-20
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0094-8276 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_MACSUR Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4936
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Author Lehtonen, H.
Title Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Agricultural and Food Science Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Food Science
Volume 24 Issue 3 Pages 219-234
Keywords agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy
Abstract Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production.
Address 2016-07-22
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1459-6067 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4750
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Author Schönhart, M.; Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Heinrich, G.; Gobiet, A.
Title Integrated analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication German Journal of Agricultural Economics Abbreviated Journal German Journal of Agricultural Economics
Volume 63 Issue 3 Pages 156-176
Keywords land use; modelling; climate change impact; adaptation; integrated analysis; epic; pasma; crop production; land-use; management-practices; model projections; central-europe; soil-erosion; water; variability; strategies; region
Abstract An integrated modelling framework (IMF) has been developed and applied to analyse climate change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. The IMF couples the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bottom-up economic land use model PASMA at regional level (NUTS-3) considering agri-environmental indicators. Four contrasting regional climate model (RCM) simulations represent climate change until 2050. The RCM simulations are applied to a baseline and three adaptation and policy scenarios. Climate change increases crop productivity on national average in the IMF. Changes in average gross margins at national level range from 0% to + 5% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. The impacts at NUTS-3 level range from -5% to + 7% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. Adaptation measures such as planting of winter cover crops, reduced tillage and irrigation are effective in reducing yield losses, increasing revenues, or in improving environmental states under climate change. Future research should account for extreme weather events in order to analyse whether average productivity gains at the aggregated level suffice to cover costs from expected higher climate variability.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0002-1121 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4652
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