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Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
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Sector level agricultural development following different adaptations to climate change |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-36 |
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Future crop yields in northern Europe are subject to many factors and uncertainties, according to recent agro-ecological studies. Based on our farm level analysis, we concluded that prices of agricultural products are the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change. They, as well as the policy conditions, affect the level of fertilization and the use of other inputs, land use and the intensity and the volume of agricultural production. We outlined 5 main scenarios of agricultural adaptation in Finland, and used an agricultural sector model to assess the impacts of the 5 scenarios on total production and land use in the whole country and in its four main regions. In the scenarios with unchanged product prices in the real terms, we find that a small increase or decrease in crop yields is possible. Significantly higher yields would require also 20-30% higher prices of crop products. Our sector modeling results suggest that avoiding decreases in crop yields is important for agricultural income in the long-term, even if livestock production in also maintained by national subsidies. Decreasing yields will result in increasing nutrient surplus and most likely in increased nutrient leaching, while increasing crop yields, even slightly, would significantly decrease nutrient surplus and increase farm income. Significant increases in crop yields and prices, however, are required before production clearly increases in Finland. Interestingly, cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, in the case of high future prices. This is explained by the abundant land resources, as well as the high opportunity cost of labor and policy systems maintaining current livestock production. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2151 |
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Lehtonen, H. |
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Pilot study at North Savo region |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-35 |
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Feed crop cultivation dominates land use in North Savo region where the value of dairy milk and beef production is approx. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production. Grass silage is produced on cultivated grasslands through grass-cereal rotations. There are restricted or no markets for silage. Dairy and beef farms, directly dependent on the quantity and quality of silage, are vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. Long-term viability of farming is dependent on the long-term productivity development of feed crop production, and ability to cope with adverse weather conditions, affecting both quality and quantity of feed. Adaptation challenges include more frequent wet and dry conditions, increased pest and disease pressure, and overwintering problems, affecting quantity and quality of grass and cereals harvests. More frequent wet conditions are combined with larger farm size, higher axle loads of heavy machinery, increased risk of soil compaction, and high timeliness costs due to rapidly deteriorating feed quality if not harvested at the right time. Some solutions impose new investments and high costs. Results from bio-physical modeling show a clear need for new cultivars better suited in future climate. Various other solutions discussed with the farmers and extension specialists include improved maintenance of drainage and soil structure, to be promoted by crop rotation, soil improvements such as liming, as well as better crop protection. However, higher grass yields may be realized without considerably increased inter-annual yield variability. Needed long-term investments may thus lead to increased productivity under favorable market and policy conditions. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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2150 |
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Lauwers, L. |
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Participatory modelling for strategy design on dairy farms |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-34 |
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To comply with complexity in farming and social demands with respect to farming practices, to remain competitive in and resilient to an ever changing decision environment, today’s farm managers need to develop an extensive portfolio of activities, made coherent by an overall strategic vision. This paper focusses on dairy farming, which shows complexity by integrating crop and livestock processes and faces nowadays important challenges from its social and market environment. The aim is twofold: first, what does strategic thinking mean in dairy farming and what kind of strategic decisions are eligible for a sustainable development, second, what kind of methodological framework can be built to support the farmer’s strategic thinking and decision making. The novel strategy exploration implies not only the mere crop-livestock organization alternatives, but also creatively looks for resilience increasing activities that allow for flexible food nonfood substitutions, multiple valorization trajectories and alternative multi-agents arrangements. Concrete examples include agroforestry, alternative nutrient throughputs or composting. The methodological support focusses on four principles: (i) integrative, considering the whole-farm scale, (iii) normative, leading to improved decision making, (iii)participatory, compiling transdisciplinary knowledge and (iv) communicative, using typical farm benchmarking. Findings are brought together from literature, own research experiences on dairy farm management and interaction with stakeholders, amongst other the technical sciences researchers in the MACSUR knowledge hub. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2149 |
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Lacetera, N. |
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Season and temperature humidity index related changes of productive and health parameters in dairy cows and pigs |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-33 |
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The work described herein was based on construction and query of four different large databases which included multiannual (5-7 years) meteorological, productive and health data from the field. Productive data were referred to dairy cows and included milk yield and composition (total bacterial count, fat and protein percentages) whereas health data were relative both to dairy cows (milk somatic cell counts and mortality data) and pigs (mortality data during transport and at lairage). The analysis pointed out significant seasonal variations of parameters under study. In synthesis, summer/hot season was associated with significant worsening of cows’ milk composition and with significant higher risk of death in pigs. The analysis also permitted to establish the themperature humidity index values above which a significant decline of performance and health of dairy cows or pigs has to expected. These results may help to predict the consequences of climate change in economically important sectors of the livestock industry, to identify and target adaptation options that are appropriate for specific contexts and that can contribute to environmental sustainability as well as to economic development. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2148 |
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Author |
Kuhnert, M. |
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Title |
Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-32 |
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In spatial modelling of Net Primary Productivity (NPP), predictability and uncertainty depends on the availability of input data, as well as on the scale of the available data sets. Therefore, the study presented here quantifies the impact of aggregation effect of input data of different scales for a regional modelling approach using 5 different resolutions. As part of this study, the presentation focuses on the impact of the climate aggregation on the simulation of NPP. The effect is investigated on the model results of 11 different crop and biogeochemical models simulating NPP for wheat and maize for the area of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The focus of the study is on the impact of drought effects across the scales considered. The data are analysed on annual time steps we followed two approaches to investigate the impact of water limitation on primary production: First, two model runs, one considers water limitation and the other one ignores the impacts of water limitation on plant production second, an external definition of dry conditions by a drought index, only considering climate data, enables a separation of grid-cells and years with drought impacts, independent of the model internal functions. The results show hardly any difference between the overall average NPP across the scales, but some variability for the impact of extreme weather conditions on the simulated NPP. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2147 |
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