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Gutzler, C.; Helming, K.; Balla, D.; Dannowski, R.; Deumlich, D.; Glemnitz, M.; Knierim, A.; Mirschel, W.; Nendel, C.; Paul, C.; Sieber, S.; Stachow, U.; Starick, A.; Wieland, R.; Wurbs, A.; Zander, P. |
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Title |
Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Ecological Indicators |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecological Indicators |
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Volume |
48 |
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Pages |
505-517 |
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Keywords |
scenarios; impact assessment; agricultural intensification; land use change; irrigation; bioenergy; social and environmental indicators; climate-change; landscape; model |
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Abstract |
Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government. The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials. In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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1470-160x |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4561 |
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Author |
Ben Touhami, H.; Bellocchi, G. |
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Title |
Bayesian calibration of the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) to simulate European grasslands under water stress |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Ecological Informatics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecological Informatics |
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30 |
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356-364 |
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Bayesian calibration framework; Grasslands; Pasture Simulation model; (PaSim); integrated assessment models; chain monte-carlo; climate-change; computation; impacts; vulnerability; likelihoods; france |
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As modeling becomes a more widespread practice in the agro-environmental sciences, scientists need reliable tools to calibrate models against ever more complex and detailed data. We present a generic Bayesian computation framework for grassland simulation, which enables parameter estimation in the Bayesian formalism by using Monte Carlo approaches. We outline the underlying rationale, discuss the computational issues, and provide results from an application of the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) to three European grasslands. The framework was suited to investigate the challenging problem of calibrating complex biophysical models to data from altered scenarios generated by precipitation reduction (water stress conditions). It was used to infer the parameters of manipulated grassland systems and to assess the gain in uncertainty reduction by updating parameter distributions using measurements of the output variables. |
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1574-9541 |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4697 |
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Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Heinke, J.; Lucht, W.; Rockström, J. |
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Title |
Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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11 |
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2 |
Pages |
025002 |
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Keywords |
sustainable intensification; yield gap; water harvesting; conservation agriculture; irrigation efficiency; food security; climate change adaptation; sub-saharan africa; rain-fed agriculture; dry-spell mitigation; supplemental irrigation; climate-change; smallholder irrigation; environmental impacts; developing-countries; semiarid region; south-africa |
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As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an ‘ambitious’ scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree. |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4733 |
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Author |
Daccache, A.; Ciurana, J.S.; Diaz, J.A.R.; Knox, J.W. |
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Title |
Water and energy footprint of irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean region |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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9 |
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12 |
Pages |
124014 |
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food security; CO2 emissions; nexus; water productivity; water resources; climate-change; southern spain; management; impacts; deficit; grids |
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Irrigated agriculture constitutes the largest consumer of freshwater in the Mediterranean region and provides a major source of income and employment for rural livelihoods. However, increasing droughts and water scarcity have highlighted concerns regarding the environmental sustainability of agriculture in the region. An integrated assessment combining a gridded water balance model with a geodatabase and GIS has been developed and used to assess the water demand and energy footprint of irrigated production in the region. Modelled outputs were linked with crop yield and water resources data to estimate water (m(3) kg(-1)) and energy (CO2 kg(-1)) productivity and identify vulnerable areas or `hotspots’. For a selected key crops in the region, irrigation accounts for 61 km(3) yr(-1) of water abstraction and 1.78 Gt CO2 emissions yr-1, with most emissions from sunflower (73 kg CO2/t) and cotton (60 kg CO2/t) production. Wheat is a major strategic crop in the region and was estimated to have a water productivity of 1000 tMm(-3) and emissions of 31 kg CO2/t. Irrigation modernization would save around 8 km(3) of water but would correspondingly increase CO2 emissions by around +135\%. Shifting from rain-fed to irrigated production would increase irrigation demand to 166 km(3) yr(-1) (+137\%) whilst CO2 emissions would rise by +270\%. The study has major policy implications for understanding the water-energy-food nexus in the region and the trade-offs between strategies to save water, reduce CO2 emissions and/or intensify food production. |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4747 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
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61 |
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11 |
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502-510 |
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Keywords |
climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water |
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Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies. |
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0139-570x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4644 |
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