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Author Montesino-San Martín, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.
Title A genotype, environment and management (GxExM) analysis of adaptation in winter wheat to climate change in Denmark Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume 187 Issue Pages 1-13
Keywords Winter wheat; Climate change; Adaptation; Uncertainty; Europe; food security; model hadgem1; physical-properties; regional climate; change impacts; field-scale; land-use; yield; nitrogen; variability
Abstract Wheat yields in Europe have shown stagnating trends during the last two decades, partly attributed to climate change. Such developments challenge the needs for increased production, in particular at higher latitudes, to meet increasing global demands and expected productivity reductions at lower latitudes. Climate change projections from three General Circulation Models or GCMs (UKMO-HadGEM1, INM-GM3.0 and CSIRO-Mk3.1) for the A1FI SIZES emission scenario for 2000 to 2100 were downscaled at a northern latitude location (Foulum, Denmark) using LARS-WG5.3. The scenarios accounted for changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. In addition, three temperature-variability scenarios were included assuming different levels of decreased temperature variability in winter and increased in summer. Crop yield was simulated for the different climate change scenarios by a calibrated version of AFRCWHEAT2 to model several combinations of genotypes (varying in crop growth, development and tolerance to water and nitrogen scarcity) and management (sowing dates and nitrogen fertilization rate). The simulations showed a slight improvement of grain yields (0.3-1.2 Mg ha(-1)) in the medium-term (2030-2050), but not enough to cope with expected increases in demand for food and feed. Optimum management added up to 1.8 Mg ha(-1). Genetic modifications regarding winter wheat crop development exhibit the greatest sensitivity to climate and larger potential for improvement (+3.8 Mg ha(-1)). The results consistently points towards need for cultivars with a longer reproductive phases (2.9-7.5% per 1 degrees C) and lower photoperiod sensitivities. Due to the positive synergies between several genotypic characteristics, multiple-target breeding programmes would be necessary, possibly assisted by model-based assessments of optimal phenotypic characteristics.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0168-1923 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4630
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Author Sharif, B.; Olesen, J.E.
Title Effects of tillage, fertilizer and residue management on crop growth dynamics in winter wheat at Foulum, Denmark Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
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Area Expedition Conference MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2827
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Author Sharif, B.; Olesen, J.E.
Title Probabilistic assessment of agroclimatic effects on winter rapeseed yield in Denmark Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
Abstract
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2828
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Author Yin, X.; Olesen, J.E.; Wang, M.; Öztürk, I.; Chen, F.
Title Observed and anticipated impacts and adaptation of crop production systems to climate change in the northeast farming region of China Type Manuscript
Year Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM;
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2911
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Author Yin, X.; Olesen, J.E.; Li, W.; Wang, M.; Zhang, H.
Title Contributions of climatic, technological and social factors to maize yield in the northeast farming region of China during 1985 to 2009 Type Manuscript
Year 2015 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
Abstract
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2912
Permanent link to this record